Happy Monday!
High-Level Insights ✈️
Last week, mortgage applications surged nationally, increasing 9.4% week over week & 25.4% year over year - reflecting softening rates and renewed buyer interest.
In Central Ohio, as expected, showing activity bounced back strongly post-July 4th, with raw total showings up 32% over the prior week.
Nationally, tailwinds include easing mortgage rates and policy shifts like VantageScore adoption, which could expand access for first-time buyers. Headwinds continue to be high home prices, tariff uncertainties, and a "lock-in" effect that is keeping inventory low.
In Central Ohio, growing inventory/a balancing market (up 69% YoY) could be viewed as a headwind or tailwind, while distinct headwinds are affordability challenges and a slower sales pace due to elevated rates and market uncertainty.
TL;DR 📖
Markets: Stocks saw modest declines, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closing lower.
Rates: Mortgage rates fluctuated slightly, ending around 6.82%.
Fed Outlook: July cut odds remain low at 4.7%; September at 61.1% for a 25 bps cut.
Policy: Trade deal extensions granted; new VantageScore option for mortgages could boost access.
Central Ohio: Total showings rebounded 32% WoW; inventory up 3.5% WoW and 69% YoY, with net listings gained LW at 407.
Macro Update 📊
Policy Update: VantageScore Adoption
Fannie/Freddie now accept VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO, incorporating rent history to expand access for first-time buyers and thin-credit files (needs just 1 month history).
Benefits: Boosts buyer pools, equitable underwriting (per NAR), and possible closing cost reductions via competition (noted by Realtor.com experts).
Challenges: Industry scrambling; no immediate savings due to tri-merge rules; gradual adoption amid unclear guidelines/tech shifts; full implementation likely in 2026.
Tariff & Trade Deal Deadlines:
The July 9 deadline came and went with extensions for good-faith negotiators like Canada and Mexico, pushing potential tariff reinstatements to mid-August.
August 1 remains the firm date for non-compliers.
Stock Market Performance (July 7-11):
S&P 500: ⬇️ 0.3%
Nasdaq: ⬇️ 0.1%
Dow Jones: ⬇️ 1%
30-Year Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily):
Today: 30-year conventional at 6.83%
Dates: 07/07 ➔ 07/08 ➔ 07/09 ➔ 07/10 ➔ 07/11
Rates: 6.79% ➔ 6.81% ➔ 6.77% ➔ 6.79% ➔ 6.82%
Mortgage Applications:
Purchase Apps: ⬆️ 9.4% WoW | ⬆️ 25.4% YoY
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch):
Current Target Rate: 4.25-4.50%
July 30 Meeting: o
Odds of a 25 bps Cut: 4.7%
Odds of No Cut: 95.3%
September 17 Meeting:
Odds of a 25 bps Cut: 61.1%
Odds of No Cut: 36%
The Fed emphasized patience on cuts due to steady employment and tariff/inflation risks.
10-Year US Treasury Bonds:
The 10-year yield ranged from 4.34% to 4.43%, starting at 4.40% on July 7 and closing at 4.43% on July 11.
Influenced by tariff announcements, economic uncertainty, and Fed policy discussions.
Other Indicators:
Fear & Greed Index: 77 (Extreme Greed)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 1.71%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
NEW to the update! Meant to capture the market's current raw emotions, the Sentiment section analyzes recent X posts via keyword searches on real estate topics, summarizing unfiltered user views on market dynamics, rates, affordability, and national vs. Central Ohio trends.
National Residential Sentiment:
Dominant sentiment: Pessimism prevails in the U.S. real estate market, with users seeing it as a seller's market nationally, but shifting toward buyers in some regions due to high prices and the "lock-in" effect (e.g., "The market is frozen because no one wants to sell and give up their 3% mortgage"; "71% think it's a bad time to buy").
Mortgage rates outlook: Expected to drop slowly, but concerns about a supply flood if they fall below 6%, which could intensify competition (e.g., "If rates fall to or below 6%, it will accelerate buyer competition").
Affordability and homeownership feelings: Buyers are largely discouraged, citing job concerns, tariffs, stagnant wages, and high rates/prices (e.g., "High rates and prices fueling deeper correction risk"; "61% feel less confident they’ll ever own a home").
Columbus/Central Ohio Residential Sentiment:
Mirrors national views, with emphasis on motivated sellers, price cuts, and a cash buyer's market now (potentially full buyer's mkt in 2-3 years); slightly more hope if rates decline, but affordability is the core frustration.
Central Ohio Market Update - 🌎📍
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (06/29–07/26):
Closings: 2,438 ⬆️ 0.9% YoY
New Listings: 3,213 ⬆️ 20.3% YoY
Active Inventory: 4,941 ⬆️ 69.0% YoY | ⬆️ 3.5% WoW
Median Sale Price: $360,000 ⬆️ 5.1% YoY
Avg DOM: 24 days ⬆️ 14.3% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.0 months
Price Reductions: 54% of actives
Net Listings Gained Last Week: ⬆️ 407
LP/SP Ratio: 99.7% ⬆️1.1% YoY
YTD Snapshot:
Closings: 14,307 homes - ⬇️ 2.1% YoY
New Listings: 18,696 homes - ⬆️ 14.8% YoY
Median Sale Price: $335,000 - ⬆️ 3.1% YoY
Average $/SF: $212.80 - ⬆️ 3.0% YoY
% of List Price Received: 98.7% - ⬇️ 0.2% YoY
Average Days on Market: 31 days - ⬆️ 14.8% YoY
Affordability & Buyer Activity:
Affordability Index: Franklin County (Last 4 Weeks):
81.4 → 87.0 → 79.6 → 88.9
A value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home.
Same Period 2024:
79.2 → 83.4 → 79.2 → 85.9
Showings per Listing (Last 4 Weeks):
5.3 → 5.1 → 4.4 → 5.5
Same Period 2024:
8.9 → 8.6 → 6.9 → 8.5
Showings per Listing Week over Week: ⬆️ 27.2%
Showings per Listing Year over Year: ⬇️ 35.2%
Historical Trends:
By the end of July, we've historically completed 57% of yearly sales.
July is typically the 3rd strongest month in sales & 3rd in new listings.