Happy Tuesday!
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I’m transitioning this weekly market update to a new newsletter platform called Beehiiv. That means future updates will come from [email protected]. Be sure to add that address to your safe sender list so it doesn’t land in spam. Keep an eye out over the next week or two as the new format rolls out!
High-Level Insights ✈️
The U.S. economy continues to signal resilience amid geopolitical and monetary uncertainty. The stock market is riding high on strong corporate earnings and easing trade tensions, while mortgage rates remain range-bound near 6.8%. Locally, Central Ohio inventory continues to climb, affordability remains tight, and price reductions are becoming more widespread, pointing to a slowly rebalancing market.
Nationally, buyers are stuck between high home prices and elevated borrowing costs, but recent trade deals and increased inventory may soften headwinds in the months ahead. In Central Ohio, increased supply is giving buyers more leverage, yet strong price growth suggests sellers still hold some power, at least for now.
TL;DR 📖
Mortgage rates stayed flat at 6.79% avg
Stocks hit all-time highs, fueled by earnings & easing tariff fears
Central OH: Inventory ⬆️ 71% YoY, 57% of listings have reduced prices
Buyer activity is soft & new listings are ⬆️ 22% over last year
Fed likely to hold rates in July, but markets expect a cut by September
Online sentiment: discouraged buyers, but hints of future optimism
Macro Update 📊
Trump's Idea to Eliminate Capital Gains Tax on Home Sales:
Proposal Overview:
Trump suggested eliminating capital gains tax on home sales to boost homeownership.
Critics argue the change would have limited impact for most sellers.
Current Capital Gains Exclusion Rules:
Single filers can exclude $250K in gains; married couples can exclude $500K.
Must own and use the home as a primary residence for 2 of the past 5 years.
Only about 8% of sales in 2023 exceeded the $500K exclusion.
Who Would Benefit:
High-equity homeowners in high-appreciation markets (e.g., CA, WA, MA, HI, UT).
Long-term owners or those with large property value increases.
NAR estimates 33% of homes have over $250K in equity now—projected to rise to 56% by 2030.
Why Most Sellers Won’t Benefit:
Median U.S. home profit in 2025: $123k, well below the exclusion threshold.
Most sellers already avoid capital gains tax under current rules.
Recent Trade Deals Recap:
EU: 15% tariff set (was 30% threatened); EU to buy US energy & arms
Japan: 15% tariff (was 25%), $550B investment fund
Philippines: 19% tariff (down from 20%)
Indonesia: 19% tariff (was 32%), commits to drop trade barriers
China: 90-day truce extension likely; fentanyl export controls & US tariffs under negotiation.
Stock Market Performance (July 21–25):
S&P 500: ⬆️ >1% - Closed at record highs all 5 days
Nasdaq: ⬆️ >1%
Dow Jones: ⬆️ >1% - Near December highs
Drivers:
Strong Q2 earnings (85% beat expectations)
Solid jobs data (4% unemployment)
Reduced tariff concerns after trade deals
30-Year Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily):
Jul 21 → Jul 22 → Jul 23 → Jul 24 → Jul 25
6.78% → 6.77% → 6.78% → 6.81% → 6.81%
Weekly Avg: 6.79%
Mortgage Applications:
Purchase Apps: ⬆️ 3.4% WoW | ⬆️ 22.5% YoY
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch):
Next Meeting: July 30
Chance of 25bps cut: 3.1%
No cut: 96.9%
September 17 Meeting:
25bps cut: 61.6%
No cut: 36.5%
Other Indicators:
Fear & Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.01%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National Residential Sentiment:
Buyers remain discouraged; the market is viewed as overpriced and stagnant.
Rising inventory is noted, but affordability hasn’t improved meaningfully.
Mortgage rates near 7% and record home prices are the main barriers.
Many describe the market as “frozen” with buyers staying on the sidelines.
Some optimism for late 2025 if rates fall into the mid-6% range.
Renters and first-time buyers feel especially locked out.
Columbus/Central Ohio Residential Sentiment:
Buyer sentiment is softer but less vocal than nationally.
Price reductions and open house promotions point to slowing demand.
Affordability challenges are implied, though not always directly addressed.
Local agents are actively promoting listings to generate activity.
Central Ohio Market Update - 🌎📍
"A Seller's Market transitioning towards buyer-friendly conditions"
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (06/29–07/26):
Closings: 2,439 ⬆️ 5.5% YoY
New Listings: 3,090 ⬆️ 22.0% YoY
Active Inventory: 5,091 ⬆️ 70.8% YoY | ⬆️ 0.2% WoW
Median Sale Price: $353,000 ⬆️ 7.0% YoY
Avg DOM: 27 days ⬆️ 28.6% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.1
Price Reductions: 57.3% of actives
Avg $/SqFt (Sold): $216.08 ⬆️ 5.9% YoY
LP/SP Ratio: 99.7% ⬆️ 1.1% YoY
YTD Snapshot:
YTD Closings: 15,647 ⬇️ 1.3% YoY
YTD Median Price: $337,000 ⬆️ 3.7% YoY
YTD Avg $/SqFt: $212.71 ⬆️ 2.8% YoY
YTD LP/SP Ratio: 98.6% ⬇️ 0.2% YoY
YTD New Listings: 20,289 ⬆️ 15.5% YoY
Affordability & Buyer Activity:
Affordability Index: Franklin County (Last 4 Weeks):
79.8 → 91.7 → 87.3 → 86.4
A value of 100 means the median income can afford a median-priced home.
Same Period 2024:
79.2 → 85.9 → 86.7 → 85.9
Showings per Listing (Last 4 Weeks):
4.2 → 5.3 → 5.2 → 5.0
Same Period 2024:
6.9 → 8.6 → 7.8 → 7.5
Showings per Listing WoW: ⬇️ 3.7%
Showings per Listing YoY: ⬇️ 33.4%