Happy Monday!
High-Level Insights ✈️
June inflation rose 0.3%, the largest monthly increase since January, pushing annual CPI to 2.7%. That spike reduced the already slim odds of a July rate cut. Mortgage rates held near 6.8%, while mortgage purchase applications dropped sharply week over week, but are still up ~14% year over year.
Nationally, market sentiment remains gridlocked. Buyers are frustrated with affordability, sellers are holding tight, and activity remains sluggish. In Central Ohio, inventory is poised to cross above 5,000 listings, and widespread price cuts are creating buyer leverage. Showings/listing remain low relative to years past, and the market is continuing to soften in buyers' favor.
TL;DR 📖
CPI rose 0.3% MoM, now ⬆️ 2.7% YoY
Fed unlikely to cut rates in July
Mortgage rates held steady near 6.81%
Mortgage apps ⬇️ 11.8% WoW
Central Ohio active inventory ⬆️ 69.3% YoY
55.5% of active listings have reduced their price
Buyer leverage is increasing and affordability still weighs on demand
Macro Update 📊
Inflation (CPI):
June: ⬆️ 0.3% MoM
Year over year: ⬆️ 2.7%
Largest monthly increase since January
10-Year US Treasury Bonds:
Jul 14 → Jul 15 → Jul 16 → Jul 17 → Jul 18
4.43% → 4.50% → 4.46% → 4.47% → 4.44%
Avg: 4.46%
Stock Market Performance (July 14-18):
Dow Jones: ⬇️0.1% - ($44,342.20)
S&P 500: ⬆️0.6% - ($6,296.80)
Nasdaq: ⬆️1.5% - ($20,895.70)
30-Year Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily):
Jul 14 → Jul 15 → Jul 16 → Jul 17 → Jul 18
6.83% → 6.85% → 6.83% → 6.82% → 6.81%
Weekly Avg: 6.78%
Mortgage Purchase Applications:
Purchase Apps: ⬇️11.8% WoW | ⬆️13.7% YoY
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch):
Next Meeting: July 30
Chance of 25bps cut: 4.7%
No cut: 95.3%
September 17 Meeting
25bps cut: 55.9%
No cut: 41.4%
Other Indicators:
Fear & Greed Index: 76 (Extreme Greed)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.05%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National Residential Sentiment:
Buyers describe a frozen market with sticky-high prices, high rates, and low motivation on both sides. Inventory is rising, but affordability remains the biggest barrier.
Columbus/Central Ohio Residential Sentiment:
Softer tone than national. Inventory is at multi-year highs, and price reductions are widespread. Buyers are gaining negotiation power, though affordability issues persist. Sentiment is still cautious, but local dynamics are shifting in favor of the buyer.
Central Ohio Market Update - 🌎📍
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (06/22–07/19):
Closings: 2,492 ⬇️1.8% YoY
New Listings: 3,181 ⬆️20.6% YoY
Active Inventory: 4,993 ⬆️69.3% YoY | ⬇️1.5% WoW
Median Sale Price: $358,500 ⬆️7.0% YoY | ⬆️2.65% WoW
Avg DOM: 25 days ⬆️19.0% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.0
Active Listings with Price Reductions: 55.5%
Avg Price Reduction from Original Ask: 6.0%
Avg $/SF (Sold): $218.65 ⬆️ 5.9% YoY
Sold-to-List Price Ratio: 99.7% ⬆️ 0.7% YoY
Net New Listings Last Week: ⬆️ 211
Year to Date (YTD) Snapshot:
Closings: 14,979 ⬇️ 1.9% YoY
New Listings: 19,428 ⬆️ 14.6% YoY
Median Sale Price: $335,000 ⬆️ 3.1% YoY
Avg $/SF: $212.89 ⬆️ 3.0% YoY
Sold-to-List Price: 98.6% ⬇️ 0.2% YoY
Avg DOM: 31 days ⬆️ 14.6% YoY
Affordability & Buyer Activity:
Affordability Index: Franklin County (Last 4 Weeks):
87.0 → 79.8 → 91.7 → 85.0
A value of 100 means the median income can afford a median-priced home.
Same Period 2024:
83.4 → 79.2 → 85.9 → 86.7
Showings per Listing (Last 4 Weeks):
5.0 → 4.3 → 5.4 → 5.2
Same Period 2024:
8.6 → 6.9 → 8.6 → 7.8
Showings per Listing WoW: ⬇️ 2.8%
Showings per Listing YoY: ⬇️ 33.0%
Historical Trends:
By the end of July, we've historically completed 57% of yearly sales. July is typically the 3rd strongest month in sales & 3rd in new listings.
Here’s the Data: