Happy Tuesday!
📣You’re opening this recap in our new format - we’ve officially launched this Weekly Market Update newsletter on Beehiiv!📣
Dubbed “RealTea with Jim Ross,” this new format will allow me to share more dynamic content with you, take polls, share documents, and serve my community better! Glad you’re here, and don’t hesitate to hit the reply button and let me know your thoughts, comments, or suggestions on what you’d like to see. Thanks for being here - let’s go!
High-Level Insights ✈️
Mortgage rates just dropped to their lowest levels since early October, following a sharp rally in the bond market that was triggered by Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report. The scale of the bond market move was so large that many lenders didn’t fully adjust their rates that day. With bond yields holding steady yesterday (08/04) and even improving slightly, lenders had room to issue even lower rates, locking in this latest drop (currently around 6.57%). The move underscores how sensitive mortgage rates remain to labor market data and signals renewed momentum for buyers hoping for affordability relief.
The national economic outlook darkened last week as major jobs reports revisions for May & June, along w/ a soft July jobs report exposed real cracks in labor market strength. While GDP headlines look solid, underlying demand remains muted, and reinstated tariffs have clouded inflation forecasts. These developments have sharply increased the odds of a Fed rate cut in September.
via Polymarket
In Central Ohio, the housing market remains active but is clearly shifting. Inventory is building, price reductions are becoming more common, and showings are slowing. Yet, median prices continue to climb, supported by low supply and resilient buyer demand. August will be a critical month to watch, historically one of the strongest for sales.
Tailwinds: Increased likelihood of Fed rate cuts could lead to lower mortgage rates, driving buyer demand.
Headwinds: Soft job market, affordability crunch, rising price reductions, & weak showing traffic relative to years past.
TL;DR 📖
Big downward revisions to May/June jobs and weak July hiring shocked markets
The Fed kept rates steady, but odds of a September rate cut now sit above 80%
The stock market had its worst week since May amid tariff concerns and jobs data
Mortgage rates dropped to a weekly average of 6.74%
Central Ohio: Inventory up 66.9% YoY, median price up 4.5% YoY
Macro Update 📊
Stock Market Performance (July 21–25):
S&P 500: ⬇️ 2.4%
Nasdaq: ⬇️ 2.2%
Dow Jones: ⬇️ 2.9% - worst weekly loss in 4 months
30-Year Mortgage Rates (via Mortgage News Daily):
Jul 28 → Jul 29 → Jul 30 → Jul 31 → Aug 01
6.81% → 6.77% → 6.75% → 6.75% → 6.63%
Weekly Avg: 6.74%
Today's 30-year sits around 6.57%
Mortgage Purchase Applications:
Week over Week - ⬇️ 3.4%
Year over Year - ⬇️ 22.5%
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch):
Next FOMC Meeting (Sep 17):
Chance of 25bps cut: 80.7%
No change: 19.3%
October 29 Meeting Odds (if Sep cut happens):
Additional 25bps cut: 60.4%
No change: 34.8%
Other Indicators:
Fear & Greed Index: 55 (Neutral)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 1.61%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National Residential Mood:
Overwhelming pessimism about home affordability and high mortgage rates
Record-low first-time buyer share (30%) fuels belief it's a seller's market
Buyers are delaying due to the "lock-in effect," poor wage growth, and rate/inflation uncertainty
Widespread hope that rates drop to 4.5-5%, but no talk of higher rates
Columbus/Central Ohio Residential Mood:
Sparse commentary, but aligned with national affordability concerns
Frustration over tax abatements favoring developers
Optimism surrounding industrial/commercial growth trends
Central Ohio Market Update - 🌎📍
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (July week 2 - July Week 5, 7/6 - 8/2):
Closings: 2,489 ⬇️ 4.1% YoY
New Listings: 3,375 ⬆️ 24.2% YoY
Active Inventory: 5,108 ⬆️ 66.9% YoY | ⬇️ 0.6% WoW
Median Sale Price: $345,000 ⬆️ 4.5% YoY
Average Days on Market (DOM): 27 days ⬆️ 28.6% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.1
Active Listings with Price Reductions: 58.0%
Average Price Reduction from Original List: 6.3%
Central Ohio Average Active Inventory, January 2023 - Present
YTD Snapshot:
YTD Closings: 16,274 ⬇️ 1.3% YoY
YTD Median Price: $337,000 ⬆️ 3.7% YoY
YTD Avg $/SqFt: $212.94 ⬆️ 2.8% YoY
YTD LP/SP Ratio: 98.5% ⬇️ 0.2% YoY
YTD New Listings: 20,896 ⬆️ 14.5% YoY
Central Ohio Average & Median Sales Prices by Month
Affordability & Buyer Activity:
Affordability Index: Franklin County (Last 4 Weeks):
91.7 → 87.3 → 86.7 → 88.5
A value of 100 means the median income can afford a median-priced home.
Same Period, 2024:
85.9 → 86.7 → 85.9 → 85.1
Showings per Listing (Last 4 Weeks):
5.4 → 5.1 → 4.9 → 4.6
Same Period, 2024:
8.6 → 7.8 → 7.5 → 7.3
Showings per Listing WoW: ⬇️ 5.8%
Showings per Listing YoY: ⬇️ 36.4%
Here’s the data: