TL ; DR 📖
Macro
GDP surprised to the upside
Rates eased, but cuts look less urgent
Inflation remains sticky
Central OH
Inventory up sharply
Showings down seasonally
Prices holding steady
The RealTea 🫖
Housing is getting mixed signals. Some factors are helping demand in the short term, but affordability remains a challenge. Mortgage rates may edge lower, but without cooler inflation or weaker job data, real relief is limited. Locally, more homes for sale give buyers more options, while prices are mostly holding steady.
Tailwinds
Mortgage rates are hovering near 6.20%
Inventory up ⬆️ 50.7% YoY in Central Ohio
Stable home price trends
Headwinds
GDP growth running hot at 4.3%
Inflation inside GDP firming
Buyer affordability still stretched
SPOTLIGHT: GDP REPORT Q3 2025 🔦
Real GDP rose at a 4.3% annual rate in Q3, up from 3.8% in Q2, and beating expectations of roughly 3.4%. The BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) released this as an initial estimate due to delayed shutdown data. Underlying private demand stayed firm, with real final sales up 3.0%. Consumer spending led the gain, while inventory investment dragged. Inflation inside the report moved higher, complicating the rate outlook.
Highlights:
GDP: 4.3% in Q3 vs 3.8% in Q2
Consumer spending: 3.5%
Core PCE: 2.9% vs 2.6% prior
Corporate profits: +$166.1B
Takeaway: Strong growth with firmer inflation reduces urgency for near-term rate cuts.
SPOTLIGHT: BIG TAX REFUNDS EXPECTED 🔦
Many households may see larger tax refunds in early 2026 because 2025 tax cuts were applied retroactively while payroll withholding tables stayed unchanged. Most workers continued to have taxes withheld at pre-cut levels throughout 2025, which means the tax savings show up as a lump-sum refund at filing rather than higher take-home pay. Estimates suggest $1,000–$2,000 extra for many filers. This creates a short-term cash boost that can help buyers cover closing costs or pay down debt. The impact is timing-related, not a permanent income increase, and may fade by summer.
Highlights:
Estimated $144B in 2025 tax cuts
Up to $100B could show up in refunds
Average refunds recently in low-$3,000s
Refund timing clustered Feb–April
Takeaway: Refund-driven cash can spark short-term buyer activity, especially among first-time and rate-sensitive buyers, but the demand boost will likely be short-lived.
Macro Update 📊
Growth stayed strong while inflation firmed. Markets adjusted expectations for early-2026 rate cuts. Housing remains rate-sensitive despite easing yields.
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Holiday trading volumes were thin, but stocks moved higher.
Dow Jones: ⬆️ 1.2% WoW
S&P 500: ⬆️ 1.4% WoW
Nasdaq: ⬆️ 1.2% WoW
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance Last Week
Yields moved lower late last week after some midweek volatility.
Weekly range: 4.113% to 4.205%
Weekly close: 4.137%
⬇️ 0.027% from Monday open to Friday close
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Dec 22 → Dec 23 → Dec 24 → Dec 25 → Dec 26
6.24% → 6.24% → 6.21% → 6.21% → 6.20%
Weekly Avg: 6.22%
Rates drifting lower into year-end
Still range-bound near low-6%
Mortgage Applications
Mortgage Purchase Applications (Last 4 Weeks)
186.1 → 181.6 → 176.5 → 169.9
Same Period Last Year
161.5 → 154.9 → 157.1 → 157.1
⬇️ 3.7% WoW
⬆️ 8.1% YoY
Seasonal slowdown persists, but demand remains stronger than last year.
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 3.50-3.75%
Jan 28 Meeting:
25 bps cut 18.8%
No change 81.2%
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 56 Greed
Truflation Inflation Index: 2.17%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National housing sentiment remains discouraged due to affordability. Inventory gains and easing rates help, but high prices and lock-in effects dominate the discussion. Columbus chatter is quieter and more neutral, with optimism focused on sub-$400K opportunities.
National
Buyers remain priced out, despite easing rates and rising inventory.
Market thawing slowly, but affordability dominates sentiment.
Columbus
Relative affordability draws interest.
New supply viewed as a long-term positive.
Pull Quote “Rates near 6.2% help, but prices and supply constraints still lock out most first-time buyers.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Inventory growth continues to reshape the market. Buyers have more choice, but activity slowed sharply during the holiday period. Pricing remains resilient despite weaker showings.
Stats From the Last 4 Weeks
Closings: 1,835 ⬇️ 5.0% YoY
New Listings: 1,264 ⬆️ 5.1% YoY
Active Inventory: 4,050 ⬆️ 50.7% YoY
Median Price: $329,000 ⬆️ 1.2% YoY
Avg DOM: 40 ⬆️ 17.6% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.3
Year-to-Date Snapshot
Closings: 28,250 ⬆️ 0.8% YoY
Median Price: $337,000 ⬆️ 3.2% YoY
Avg $/SF: $212.21 ⬆️ 2.5% YoY
New Listings: 30,507 ⬆️ 6.8% YoY
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 98.1. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
104.7 → 105.5 → 101.6 → 112.5
Same Period 2024:
94.6 → 95.0 → 94.3 → 93.7
⬆️ 10.7% WoW
⬆️ 19.9% YoY
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
3.3 → 2.9 → 2.8 → 2.0
Same Period 2024:
4.8 → 4.7 → 4.2 → 3.5
⬇️ 29% WoW
⬇️ 42.2% YoY
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
14,751 → 12,694 → 11,827 → 8,070
Same Period 2024:
14,449 → 13,593 → 11,629 → 9,271
⬇️ 31.8% WoW
⬇️ 13% YoY
Here’s the data:
Disclaimer: The information shared in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, financial, or investment advice. Always consult with a qualified attorney, financial advisor, or other professional regarding your specific situation.
—
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.