🍵 Market Update 12/01 │ Fed Cut Odds at 87% + Holiday Listing Strategy Guide

Macro

Central Ohio

Last week, rates stabilized near 6.2% and stocks rallied. Buyers appear cautious but engaged. Social media showed national buyer frustration, while Columbus stayed calm with steady activity. Central Ohio continues to show strength in closings and new listings but short-term buyer activity cooled sharply due to Thanksgiving. I expect showings to bounce back 40%+ this weekend based on data from the last 2 years.

Tailwinds

Headwinds

Your holiday listing strategy should be driven by data, not assumptions about a six-week slowdown. Using ShowingTime and Columbus MLS, I defined the “holiday period” as Christmas week and New Year’s week, then compared the 3 weeks before and the 3 weeks after across two seasons (Dec–Jan 2023–24 & 2024–25). As expected, Showings rose 23% after the holidays, and new listings climbed 11.1%, which means more traffic and more competition. Under contracts, however, fell 7.2% after the holidays, and mortgage applications stayed flat, suggesting much of that post-holiday activity is early-stage shopping. Active inventory dropped 7.4% after the holidays, creating a tighter environment for relisting.

The question becomes, do you want an environment w/ more showings or more contracts? If your listing has been sitting, you likely need NEW buyers entering the market, and that will be post-New Year, even if contract activity is down slightly.

NOTE: For sellers who want a full DOM/CDOM reset, the listing must be off-market for 33 days, which points to a pull date around Dec 7th for a Jan 9th relaunch. (applies to Columbus MLS)

Highlights
• Holiday slowdown is concentrated in Christmas and New Year’s week
• Showings rise 23% in the three weeks after holidays
• New listings rise 11.1% after holidays, adding fresh competition
• Under contracts fall 7.2% after holidays, suggesting slower conversions
• Active inventory drops 7.4% after holidays, tightening supply
• Mortgage applications stay flat before and after, demand level is steady
• Full DOM/CDOM reset requires 33 days off-market in the Columbus MLS
• Sample timing: pull by Dec 7 to relist on Friday, Jan 9

Takeaway: Use this data to match strategy to seller goals, choosing between steady December exposure or a cleaner January relaunch with a fresh DOM reset.

NAR’s latest Pending Home Sales Report showed a modest uptick in October, with contract signings up 1.9% from September but still 0.4% below last year. This points to a market that is stabilizing rather than surging, with regional differences driven largely by affordability. The Midwest led with a 5.3% monthly gain and a 0.9% increase year over year, followed by smaller gains in the South. The Northeast posted a slight monthly gain but fell 1.0% year over year, while the West saw both monthly and annual declines as high prices limited activity. Confidence data shows fewer agents expecting higher buyer or seller traffic over the next three months, which aligns with a cooler but functioning market.

Highlights
• Pending home sales: ⬆️ 1.9% month over month, ⬇️ 0.4% year over year
• Midwest: ⬆️ 5.3% MoM, ⬆️ 0.9% YoY, best regional performance
• South: ⬆️ 1.4% MoM, ⬆️ 2.0% YoY
• Northeast: ⬆️ 2.3% MoM, ⬇️ 1.0% YoY
• West: ⬇️ 1.5% MoM, ⬇️ 7.0% YoY
• Only 17% of agents expect higher buyer traffic next 3 months, down from 20% in September
• Only 16% expect higher seller traffic, down from 19% last month and last year
• Affordability supports the Midwest, while the high-cost West lags

Takeaway: Agents, buyers, and sellers should read this report as a slow grind toward normalization, with the best near-term opportunities in more affordable regions like the Midwest and South.

U.S. markets were open four days and rose each session, signaling stronger investor confidence.

• Dow Jones: ⬆️ 4.0% WoW
• S&P 500: ⬆️ 4.1% WoW
• Nasdaq: ⬆️ 4.3% WoW

Consistent gains and rising risk appetite support rate stability and help maintain buyer activity in housing.

• Nov 24 → Nov 25 → Nov 26 → Nov 28
• 4.04% → 4.01% → 4.00% → 4.02%

Lower yields helped steady mortgage rates and supported buyer confidence.

• Nov 24 → Nov 25 → Nov 26 → Nov 27 → Nov 28
• 6.32% → 6.20% → 6.22% → 6.22% → 6.22%
• Weekly Avg: 6.24%

Rates held in the low 6% range, keeping buyer engagement steady.

Mortgage Purchase Applications just hit a high for 2025, a promising signal for housing demand as rates hover in the low 6’s.

Rising demand suggests buyers are preparing for lower-rate opportunities.

Rate expectations remain supportive of housing demand.

• Mortgage balances rose $137B in Q3 2025, reaching $13.07T
• HELOC balances rose $11B, now at $422B, fourteen quarters of growth
• HELOCs are $105B above the Q1 2022 low
• Credit card balances increased $24B to $1.23T, ⬆️ 5.75% YoY
• Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66T
• Other consumer loans rose $10B to $550B
• Student loan balances increased $15B to $1.65T
• Total non-housing balances rose $49B, ⬆️ 1.0% from Q2 2025

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Foreclosure activity rose again in October 2025, marking the eighth straight month of year-over-year increases. ATTOM’s latest report shows that foreclosure filings continue to trend upward as some homeowners adjust to higher borrowing costs and economic pressure. Activity is still below historic highs, but the steady increase signals a gradual normalization rather than a crisis. The Midwest and South remain comparatively stable, while Florida leads in both foreclosure rates and foreclosure starts. Major metros saw mixed results, with some MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Area) showing sharp declines, indicating uneven stress across markets.

Key Stats – October 2025 (Source: ATTOM)
• Total foreclosure filings: 36,766, ⬆️ 3% MoM, ⬆️ 19% YoY
• Foreclosure starts: 25,129, ⬆️ 6% MoM, ⬆️ 20% YoY
• Completed foreclosures (REOs): 3,872, ⬆️ 2% MoM, ⬆️ 32% YoY

Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.

Closings and new listings stayed strong, while buyer activity cooled in the short term. Inventory tightened WoW but remains well above last year’s levels. Showings dipped sharply, reflecting seasonal slowdown and caution. Median price held at $335,000 with reduced showings and higher DOM.

🏠 Closings: 2,042, ⬆️ 4.9% over LY
🏠 New Listings: 2,036, ⬆️ 23.8% over LY
📈 Active Inventory: 4,864 homes, ⬆️ 61.9% over LY & ⬇️ 4.3% WoW
💲 Median Sales Price: $335,000, ⬆️ 3.1% over LY
⬇️ 59.6% of active listings have reduced price
📅 Average DOM: 38, ⬆️ 26.7% over LY
📅 Months of Supply: 2.5
🔁 LP/SP Ratio: 98.0%, ⬆️ 1.1% over LY

🏘️ Closings: 26,331, ⬆️ 0.9% over LY
💲 Median Sales Price: $338,000, ⬆️ 3.4% over LY
📏 AVG $/SF: $212.88, ⬆️ 2.7% over LY
🔁 LP/SP Ratio: 97.9% of asking price, ⬇️ 0.5% over LY
🏘️ New Listings: 30,044, ⬆️ 9.7% over LY
📏 YTD AVG $/SF: $211.27, ⬆️ 3.4% over LY

Showings & Affordability

Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔

Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 98.1. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).

Here’s the data:

Side-By-Side Data, Nov Week 4, 2025 - Central Ohio (2023-2025)

Central Ohio Market Update, Nov Week 4, 2025