🍵 Market Update 11/24 │ Thanksgiving Slows the Market, but the Fed May Boost It

• Fed cut odds jump to 70% on dovish tone from NY Fed
• Mortgage apps ⬇️ 2.3% WoW but ⬆️ 24% YoY
• 10-year yield fell 7 bps, easing pressure on rates
• Fear & Greed Index at 11, showing Extreme Fear

• Active inventory ⬆️ 62.9% over LY
• New listings ⬆️ 27.7% over LY
• Affordability holding near YTD average
• Showings per listing trending ⬇️ week by week

Thanksgiving week brings a clear slowdown. Most buyers check out. Showings, contracts, and new listings all pull back as people travel and focus on family. But there is one upside. Serious buyers still watch the market, and with fewer listings hitting the MLS, new listings could stand out to the few buyers who are still very active.

Bottom line: List this week if you favor visibility over volume. The most serious buyers will see the listing, but if you want more normal traffic, wait one more week.

Markets shifted sharply last week after NY Fed President John Williams signaled support for a near-term rate adjustment. His comments, paired with a weakened labor report, drove expectations for a December cut from below 40% to above 70% in just 24 hours. The September jobs report, delayed but influential, showed a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Traders reacted quickly, interpreting the message as confirmation that monetary policy may be restrictive. This move is critical for mortgage-sensitive sectors as the Fed may lean toward easing by year-end.

Highlights
• Williams said he “sees room for a further adjustment in the near term”
• FedWatch Tool odds for a 25 bps cut jumped from 35–40% to 70%
• Unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, highest since 2021
• Market leaning toward dovish stance after weeks of indecision
• Rate expectations now carry firmer support from Fed officials

Takeaway: Buyer optimism may rise quickly if rates break lower heading into December.

The market stayed volatile with tech weakness early, then rallied late week on rising Fed cut expectations.
• Dow Jones: ⬇️ 1.3% WoW
• S&P 500: ⬇️ 1.9% WoW
• Nasdaq: ⬇️ 2.7% WoW
Rates moving lower supported housing outlook, but investor caution remains high.

The 10-year Treasury moved lower last week, with yields grinding down as markets priced in higher odds of a December Fed cut. Volatility stayed contained, but the drop in yields supported the move lower in mortgage rates.

• Daily closes: 4.13% → 4.12% → 4.13% → 4.10% → 4.06%
• Weekly change: ⬇️ 0.07% WoW (4.13% → 4.06%)

Lower Treasury yields ease pressure on mortgage rates, which helps affordability and supports buyer activity if the trend holds.

A modest dip WoW, but activity far stronger than LY.

National
• Buyers see a stagnant market with rising inventory and fewer bidding wars, shifting leverage to buyers in many areas.
• Frustration over affordability persists, but rate stability near 6% lifts buyer hope in select markets.

Columbus
• Mild buyer’s tilt with price reductions and active listings supporting choice.
• Rates align with national levels near 6%, yet prices are climbing.
• Growth stories around New Albany and downtown development fuel confidence.

Pull-Quote
“National sentiment feels frozen, but Columbus shows signs of cautious movement and localized resilience.”

Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.

Columbus remains more active than national trends, with strong listing activity and stable closing volume. Inventory is higher, but demand stays healthy enough to prevent a full buyer takeover. Affordability sits in line with the yearly average.

🏠 CLOSINGS: 2,291, ⬆️ 3.7% over LY
🏠 NEW LISTINGS: 2,436, ⬆️ 27.7% over LY
📈 ACTIVE INVENTORY: 5,097 homes ⬆️ 62.9% over LY & ⬇️ 2.2% WoW
💲 MEDIAN sales price: $335,000, ⬆️ 3.1% over LY
⬇️ 61.1% of active listings have reduced price
📅 AVG DOM: 36, ⬆️ 28.6% over LY
📅 MONTHS of SUPPLY: 2.3

🏘️ CLOSINGS: 25,905, ⬆️ 1.0% over LY
💲 MEDIAN sales price: $338,000, ⬆️ 3.2% over LY
📏 AVG $/SF: $212.94, ⬆️ 2.6% over LY
% LP/SP: 97.9%, ⬇️ 0.5% over LY
🏘️ NEW LISTINGS: 29,909 units, ⬆️ 10.2% over LY

Showings & Affordability

Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔

Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 98. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).

Here’s the data:

Side-By-Side Data, Oct Week 5, 2025 - Central Ohio (2023-2025)

Central Ohio Market Update, Oct Week 5, 2025