TL ; DR 📖
Macro
• Fed cut odds in December slipped below 50%, and markets now lean toward a pause.
• 10 year Treasury yields moved slightly higher, and mortgage rates hovered in the mid 6s.
• Stocks fell for the week as investors absorbed hawkish (anti-cut) Fed commentary and delayed data.
• Purchase applications rose again, hinting at underlying demand if rates ease even modestly.
Central Ohio
• Inventory is up sharply YoY, with roughly ⬆️ 83.1% more active listings than the same period last year.
• Prices are slightly higher YoY, but showings per listing are down roughly ⬇️ 45.5% YoY.
• Affordability in Franklin County has improved versus last year and sits near or above 100.
• Months of supply is near 2.7, still a seller skew, but less tight than the last few years.
The RealTea 🫖
Nationally, this past week leaned risk-off (investors favoring safer assets). Bond yields and mortgage rates rose, stocks slipped, and investors priced in a higher chance of no Fed cut in December. That keeps short-term affordability tight, even as 2026 forecasts turn more constructive.
Locally, Central Ohio is still in an early-stage rebalancing market. Inventory is up sharply, price growth is modest, and buyers have more choice but less urgency. Affordability has improved versus last year, yet showing activity is much softer.
Tailwinds
• Strong 2026 housing outlooks from NAR and First American, with projected sales and modest price growth.
• Mortgage purchase applications up ⬆️ 5.8% WoW and ⬆️ 29.6% YoY, showing real demand when rates stabilize.
• Central Ohio affordability index sits around 100 and is above last year, with YTD prices and closed sales slightly higher.
Headwinds
• Fed cut odds for December have dropped below 50%, keeping the policy path uncertain.
• 30 yr mortgage rates drifted higher toward 6.38%, keeping payments elevated.
• Extreme fear in broader risk markets.
Spotlight: Fed Cut Odds Slip Below 50% 🔦
Markets now assign a slightly higher chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at the December 10 FOMC meeting. The probability of no change is about 54%, versus roughly 46% for a 25 basis point cut, down from over 90% odds of a cut one month ago. The shift follows two earlier cuts in September and October and a run of sticky inflation and resilient labor data. The government shutdown also delayed key economic reports, which makes policymakers more cautious. For real estate, this means less confidence in near-term rate relief and more focus on what happens in 2026.
Highlights
• December meeting odds: roughly 54% for no change, 46% for a 25 bps cut.
• Policy rate would stay in the 3.75-4.00% range if the Fed holds.
• Core inflation near 3% keeps the Fed uneasy about easing too fast.
• Labor market data show gradual cooling, not widespread stress.
• A recent government shutdown delayed CPI and nonfarm payroll reports.
• Fed officials sound more divided on the pace and need for further cuts.
Takeaway: Agents, buyers, sellers, and investors should plan for rates that stay higher for longer, with more meaningful relief likely tied to 2026 rather than the next Fed meeting.
Spotlight: NAR’s 2026 Outlook: More Sales, Modest Price Gains 🔦
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun is leaning optimistic about 2026. He expects existing home sales to rise about 14% year over year, driven by slightly lower mortgage rates, continued job gains, and better overall market stability. On prices, Yun calls for roughly 4% national growth in 2026, supported by steady demand and still low inventory. He also ties part of this path to the reopening of the federal government, which unlocks delayed jobs data and informs the Fed’s next moves. Yun anticipates a December rate cut and possibly two more in 2026, which would pull mortgage rates down modestly. That would not return us to pandemic-era lows, but it could ease payments enough to unfreeze some locked-in sellers and sidelined buyers.
Highlights
• 2026 existing home sales forecast: ⬆️ 14% YoY.
• 2026 home price forecast: ⬆️ 4% nationally.
• Assumes modest rate cuts, starting with a December move and two more in 2026.
• Mortgage rates expected to improve slightly, not collapse.
• Inventory remains structurally tight, which supports prices.
• Government reopening restores flow of jobs and inflation data for the Fed.
Takeaway: If Yun’s outlook holds, 2026 could bring more transaction volume and modest price growth.
Spotlight: First American Sees “Slow Normalization” in 2026 🔦
First American’s housing outlook describes a slow, uneven normalization rather than a sharp rebound. Deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi expects affordability to improve in 2026, but mainly through cooler price growth and rising incomes, not a big drop in rates. Mortgage rates are projected to sit in the low 6% range, while price appreciation has already slowed to the weakest pace since 2012. Demographics still support demand, with roughly 52 million Americans in their 30s moving through homebuying life stages. At the same time, the report calls out a two-speed market, with tight conditions in parts of the Midwest and Northeast and softer conditions in some Southern and Western metros. New construction keeps an edge, since builders can offer incentives and have move-in-ready supply.
Highlights
• Affordability gains come from slower price growth and income gains.
• Mortgage rates expected to stay in the low 6% range in 2026.
• Price growth has cooled to its weakest pace since 2012.
• About 4 million fewer existing home sales occurred from 2022 to 2025 versus pre-COVID norms.
• Demographic demand remains strong, with 52 million Americans in their 30s.
• New homes retain an advantage where builders can adjust prices and incentives.
Takeaway: Expect a gradual, local-market-driven recovery.
*First American is a major national title and real estate data firm that produces widely followed housing market forecasts.
Macro Update 📊
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Equities started strong, then sold off as hawkish Fed commentary and delayed data weighed on sentiment.
• Dow Jones: ⬇️ 0.47% WoW
• S&P 500: ⬇️ 1.44% WoW
• Nasdaq: ⬇️ 2.66% WoW
Weaker stocks and rising volatility reflect risk aversion and help keep mortgage investors cautious, limiting any near-term drop in rates.
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance Last Week
The 10 year Treasury traded in a tight range but finished slightly higher as investors priced in fewer near-term Fed cuts.
• 10 yr yield: 4.121% → 4.075% → 4.126% → 4.147%
• Weekly range: roughly 4.06% to 4.16%
• ~⬆️ 0.6% WoW
A modestly higher 10 year yield supports current mortgage rate levels and keeps pressure on affordability.
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher over the week and remain in the mid 6% range.
Nov 07 → Nov 10 → Nov 12 → Nov 13 → Nov 14
6.32% → 6.34% → 6.29% → 6.34% → 6.38%
Weekly average: 6.33%
Today’s MND rate sits near 6.38%, which keeps monthly payments elevated and limits how far buyers can stretch on price.
Mortgage Applications
Purchase application activity improved again, with both weekly and yearly comparisons pointing to stronger underlying demand.
Mortgage Purchase Applications (Last 4 Weeks):
157.3 → 164.3 → 163.3 → 172.7
Same Period 2024:
131.3 → 137.8 → 130.8 → 133.3
WoW: ⬆️ 5.8%
YoY: ⬆️ 29.6%
Stronger purchase applications signal that buyers are still willing to move when they can make the payments work, even with rates in the mid 6% range.
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 3.75-4.00%
Dec 10 Meeting:
25 bps cut 45.8%
No change 54.2%
A higher chance of no cut helps keep mortgage and bond markets braced for a “higher for longer” environment into early 2026.
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Extreme Fear)
Extreme fear signals risk aversion in broader markets, which can keep investors cautious toward mortgage credit and slow aggressive repricing lower in rates.
Truflation Inflation Index: 2.54%
Truflation suggests inflation pressure is easing toward the Fed’s target, which supports the case for gradual easing even if the next move is delayed.
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National
• Many posts describe a buyer’s market on listings, but a “non-buyer’s market” on monthly payments, as rates near 6.2%-6.34% keep ownership out of reach.
• Users note rising inventory and longer days on market, yet still talk about high median prices, soft job prospects for younger workers, and a preference to rent for now.
Columbus / Central Ohio
• Local conversations highlight Columbus and surrounding areas as growth markets, with niches like Marion County framed as underappreciated investment plays.
• Posters also stress affordability challenges and complain that prices remain high while jobs and wages lag.
• Some threads push the idea of buying small multifamily now and scaling, while others warn that private equity ownership and earlier investors have already captured most of the “easy” returns.
Pull quote
“On social media, buyers describe a market with more listings, but still feel locked out on payments, especially younger households facing weak wages and high debt.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Central Ohio continues to transition from a hyper-competitive seller’s market toward a more balanced, inventory-rich environment. Active listings are up sharply versus last year, and the months of supply is now around 2.7. Prices and closings are modestly higher than 2024, but homes take longer to go into contract. Affordability has improved meaningfully versus last year, supported by income gains and slower price growth. At the same time, showing activity per listing is lower, which confirms that buyers are pickier and more payment sensitive.
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (Oct 19 - Nov 15, 2025)
• Closings: 2,184, ⬇️ 0.7% over LY
• New Listings: 2,544, ⬆️ 26.6% over LY
• Active Inventory: 5,926 homes, ⬆️ 83.1% over LY, ⬇️ 1.3% WoW
• Median Sales Price: 335,000, ⬆️ 1.6% over LY
• Average DOM: 34, ⬆️ 25.9% over LY
• Months of Supply: 2.7, ⬆️ 85.3% over LY
Year-to-Date (YTD) Snapshot
• YTD Closings: 25,261, ⬆️ 0.6% over LY
• YTD Median Sales Price: 338,000, ⬆️ 3.0% over LY
• YTD Average $/SF (Solds): 212.93, ⬆️ 2.6% over LY
• YTD New Listings: 30,280 units, ⬆️ 13.1% over LY
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 98. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
105.1 → 105.2 → 100.2 → 101.0
Same Period 2024:
96.4 → 93.4 → 89.6 → 86.3
YTD Average: 98.0
⬆️ 0.8% WoW
⬆️ 17.0% YoY
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
3.5 → 3.4 → 3.2 → 3.0
Same Period 2024:
5.9 → 5.6 → 5.5 → 5.5
⬇️ 5.4% WoW
⬇️ 45.5% YoY
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
21,124 → 20,239 → 19,179 → 17,908
Same Period 2024:
19,096 → 18,367 → 18,061 → 17,953
⬇️ 6.6% WoW
⬇️ 0.3% YoY
Local Events 🌎📍
Here’s the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.