TL ; DR 📖
Macro:
Rates averaged 6.33%, yields stayed near 4.11%, and the record-long shutdown froze key housing operations.
Policy: Trump’s 50-year mortgage proposal and Fannie’s FICO removal signal easier access ahead.
Labor: ADP’s surprise +42K job gain hinted at strength, lifting rate expectations.
Sentiment: National mood stayed gloomy; Columbus turned slightly more buyer-friendly.
Central OH:
Inventory up 78% YoY, prices steady, showings weaker, and marketing times rising.
The RealTea 🫖
Market sentiment weakened as the shutdown deepened and rate volatility returned. Fannie’s new credit policy and Trump’s proposed 50-year mortgage both grabbed headlines, but their long-term benefits hinge on supply growth and stable regulation. Buyers remain constrained by affordability, while Central Ohio sellers face growing competition.
Tailwinds
Expanded credit access from Fannie’s new DU (Desktop Underwriter) rule.
Long-term financing proposals that could soften monthly payments.
Inventory growth in Central Ohio gives buyers more selection.
Headwinds
Record government shutdown slowing housing and loan processing.
Rates stuck near 6.3%, leaving affordability tight.
First-time buyers older and more cautious, sentiment still weak nationally.
Spotlight: Trump’s Proposed 50-Year Mortgage 🔦
The Trump Administration, through the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) and Director Bill Pulte, is crafting a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage to tackle the affordability crisis. The goal: spread payments over five decades to lower monthly costs for first-time and lower-income buyers, much like the 30-year loan did during the New Deal era.
Highlights
Structure: 50-year fixed, backed by Fannie and Freddie.
Payment Example: $400K @ 6.575% = $2,788 (30 yr) → $2,572 (50 yr), saving ~$216/mo (although rates on a 30-yr will be lower than a 50-yr).
Target Audience: Younger buyers locked out by high prices and rates.
Regulatory Needs: CFPB must amend the Qualified Mortgage rule (current cap: 30 years).
Timeline: 12–24 months for rollout if approved.
Pros: Expands eligibility, stabilizes payments, and could improve inventory turnover.
Cons: Slower equity growth, higher lifetime interest (~50% more than 30-yr term), potential to inflate prices.
Takeaway: The proposal eases payments short-term but deepens debt long-term. Without supply reform, it risks treating symptoms, not causes.
Spotlight: Fannie Mae Removes Minimum FICO Requirement 🔦
On November 5, Fannie Mae announced it will eliminate the 620 minimum FICO score for loans processed through Desktop Underwriter (DU) starting November 16. This move shifts focus from credit scores to a holistic risk model that weighs multiple factors such as income, debt, and credit depth.
Highlights
Scope: DU-approved loans only; manual underwriting still requires 620+.
Assessment: DU now evaluates risk using DTI, LTV, income stability, and reserves.
Impact: Could qualify 5–10% more buyers previously excluded by credit score alone.
Oversight: Post-Dodd-Frank rules (Ability-to-Repay, Qualified Mortgage) remain intact.
Key Differences from 2008:
Then: Loans lacked documentation, relied on stated income, and ignored borrower risk.
Now: Loans must meet strict ATR/QM verification with data-driven modeling.
Then: Subprime lending exploded via private securitization with minimal oversight.
Now: Fannie’s change applies only to fully verified, conforming prime loans.
Then: FICO was often bypassed to push risky approvals.
Now: DU replaces FICO with broader data, not fewer checks.
Takeaway: This is not 2008 2.0. It modernizes credit assessment while preserving safeguards, opening the door responsibly to borrowers with limited credit history or unique financial profiles.
Spotlight: Age of First-time Homebuyer hits 40 🔦
New data from the National Association of Realtors shows that the median first-time buyer age climbed to 40 in 2025, up sharply from 33 in 2020. High prices, rising rents, and stagnant wages have delayed homeownership for a generation, reducing long-term wealth accumulation and lifetime mobility.
Highlights
Trend: Age 33 (2020) → 36 (2022) → 38 (2024) → 40 (2025).
Drivers: Student debt, rent burden, and low savings rates.
Impact: First-time buyers now make up just 21% of transactions, half pre-crash levels.
Equity Divide: Repeat buyers benefit from low locked-in rates and high equity.
Takeaway: The affordability gap is reshaping who can buy, when they can buy, and how long they’ll stay put once they do.
Macro Update 📊
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Markets ended lower amid tech weakness, delayed data, and shutdown fallout.
Dow Jones: ⬇️ 1.20% WoW
S&P 500: ⬇️ 1.62% WoW
Nasdaq: ⬇️ 2.99% WoW
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance Last Week
Nov 03 → Nov 04 → Nov 05 → Nov 06 → Nov 07
4.13% → 4.10% → 4.17% → 4.11% → 4.11%
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Nov 03 → Nov 04 → Nov 05 → Nov 06 → Nov 07
6.34% → 6.33% → 6.37% → 6.29% → 6.32%
Weekly Avg: 6.33%
Rates moved slightly higher on limited economic visibility and resilient labor data.
Mortgage Applications
Mortgage Purchase Applications (Last 4 Weeks):
166.0 → 157.3 → 164.3 → 163.3
Same Period 2024:
138.4 → 131.3 → 137.8 → 130.8
WoW: ⬇️ 0.6%
YoY: ⬆️ 24.8%
Shutdown-related processing delays likely muted activity late in the week.
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 3.75 – 4.00%
Next Meeting (Dec 10 2025):
• Chance of No Cut: 37.1%
• Chance of 25 bps Cut: 62.9%Markets still expect easing, but timing remains uncertain.
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 21 (Extreme Fear)
Truflation Inflation Index: 2.52%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National
Mood remains angry and hopeless. Buyers blame corporate ownership, immigration, and high rates. The 50-year mortgage is mocked as a “scam” that extends debt rather than solves affordability. Few expect meaningful rate relief soon.
Central Ohio
Tone is more measured. Agents highlight a shift toward a buyer-friendly market as inventory rises and rates steady. Local posts note deals returning and realistic pricing becoming the norm.
Pull-quote:
“National feeds sound angry and stuck, while Columbus feels cautiously open for business.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Central Ohio inventory remains steady while showings soften. Pricing stays stable, but longer marketing times signal a cooling market. Sellers must price tight and present well.
Stats from Last 4 Weeks (Oct 12 – Nov 08)
Closings: 2,209 ⬇️ 5.1% YoY
New Listings: 2,687 ⬆️ 28.2% YoY
Active Inventory: 5,824 ⬆️ 78.4% YoY ⬆️ 0.2% WoW
Median Price: $339,900 ⬆️ 3.0% YoY
DOM: 32 ⬆️ 23.1% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.7
YTD Snapshot
Closings: 24,714 ⬆️ 0.2% YoY
Median Price: $338,500 ⬆️ 3.2% YoY
Avg $/SF: $213.04 ⬆️ 2.7% YoY
LP/SP: 98.0% ⬇️ 0.3% YoY
New Listings: 29,705 ⬆️ 13.1% YoY
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 97.9. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
101.6 → 104.4 → 103.6 → 99.7
Same Period 2024:
88.7 → 96.4 → 93.4 → 89.6
⬇️ 3.8% WoW
⬆️ 11.3% YoY
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
3.6 → 3.6 → 3.5 → 3.3
Same Period 2024:
5.8 → 5.9 → 5.6 → 5.5
⬇️ 5.7% WoW
⬇️ 40.0% YoY
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
21,243 → 21,124 → 20,239 → 19,179
Same Period 2024:
19,139 → 19,096 → 18,367 → 18,061
⬇️ 5.2% WoW
⬆️ 6.2% YoY
Local Events 🌎📍
Here’s the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.