Macro
The Fed cut by 25 bps, but a December cut is uncertain, so yields jumped and rates rebounded.
Mortgage rates averaged ~6.24% for the week after a midweek dip.
Mortgage purchase apps rose ⬆️ 4.5% WoW and ⬆️ 19.2% YoY.
Fear & Greed = 35 (Fear). Truflation at 2.69% keeps the disinflation path intact.
Central OH
Active inventory leveling off, price reductions are common, showings easing into November.
Median price steady near $340K with YTD price metrics modestly ⬆️.
Months of supply at ~2.6 as listings outpace closings.
The RealTea 🫖
The Markets digested a second Fed cut delivered with a clear wait-and-see message for December. Yields popped back above 4%, lifting mortgage rates from early-week lows. Central Ohio supply continues to hold steady, price reductions are widespread, and buyers have a bit more leverage as showings cool into November.
Tailwinds
Cooling inflation trend supports eventual rate relief
Mortgage purchase apps ⬆️ WoW and strongly ⬆️ YoY
QT ends on Dec 1 sets the stage for easier liquidity conditions in 2026
Central Ohio inventory depth is creating more options for buyers
Headwinds
Powell’s caution on a December cut pushed the 10-year back above 4%
Fear & Greed at 35 signals risk-off tone
Affordability wobbled late in the week as rates bounced
Showings per listing are drifting lower into the holidays
Spotlight: The Fed Cuts Rates, Ends QT, and Jolts Markets 🔦
Last week, the Fed delivered its second 25 bps cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00%, but Chair Powell’s warning that a December cut is “far from a foregone conclusion” sent markets into a tailspin. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped back above 4%, and mortgage rates spiked from 6.13% to 6.27% in a single day.
More importantly, the Fed announced it will end Quantitative Tightening (QT), its balance sheet reduction program, on December 1. That’s a major shift for housing and sets the stage for the eventual return of Quantitative Easing (QE) if the economy slows in 2026.
Here’s why this matters for buyers and sellers:
QT = brakes on the housing market. When the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, it’s buying fewer Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. Less demand means higher yields, which keeps mortgage rates higher.
QE = gas pedal for the housing market. When the Fed starts buying those bonds again, demand rises, yields fall, and mortgage rates move lower.
In short, QT keeps rates higher. QE pulls rates lower.
That’s why ending QT may matter more than the rate cut itself. The cut impacts short-term lending, but ending QT is the setup for the next cycle of lower mortgage rates once QE begins again.
Spotlight: Only 28 out of Every 1,000 U.S. Homes Changed Hands TY 🔦
The housing market has rarely been this frozen. According to Redfin, just 2.8% of U.S. homes changed hands in 2025, the lowest turnover rate in at least three decades. That’s a 38% decline since the 2021 peak, when record-low mortgage rates fueled a buying frenzy. Today, affordability challenges and the lock-in effect are keeping both buyers and sellers sidelined. Over 70% of homeowners hold rates below 5%, leaving them reluctant to move into today’s 6%+ market. Meanwhile, elevated prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand.
Despite the slowdown, single-family homes are performing slightly better than condos and townhomes, where excess supply and weak demand have created deeper discounts.
Key points:
Just 28 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes sold in 2025, down sharply from 44 per 1,000 in 2021.
In Columbus, the story is similar. Redfin’s data shows 26 homes sold per 1,000 in 2025, down from 27.6 in 2024, a 5.8% year-over-year decline.
Turnover has fallen ~38% from the pandemic peak and sits at the lowest rate since the 1990s.
The lock-in effect is severe: over 70% of homeowners have sub-5% mortgage rates.
Single-family homes still see slightly higher turnover than condos/townhomes (29.9 vs. 22.2 per 1,000).
Spotlight: U.S.–China Trade Deal Reached 🔦
The White House unveiled a new trade agreement between the U.S. and China, marking a rare thaw in tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The deal includes Chinese commitments to curb fentanyl precursor exports, lift tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, and resume key purchases of soybeans and rare earth materials. In exchange, the U.S. will cut select tariffs on Chinese imports by 10% starting November 10, and delay new restrictions until 2026.
The agreement, announced following the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea, comes at a time when markets are craving stability. By easing supply chain friction and lowering trade barriers, it could support risk assets and help longer-term bond yields drift lower, a modest tailwind for mortgage rates if sustained.
Macro Update 📊
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Equities finished modestly higher after whipsaw trading around the Fed cut and Powell’s guidance.
Dow Jones: ⬆️ 0.47% WoW
S&P 500: ⬆️ 1.02% WoW
Nasdaq: ⬆️ 0.81% WoW
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance Last Week
The 10-year yield climbed back above 4% as markets reacted to lower December cut odds.
Weekly Range: ~4.08% to ~4.18%
Close: ~4.15% on Oct 31
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Rates dipped early in the week before spiking after the Fed’s press conference, ending higher overall.
Oct 27 → Oct 28 → Oct 29 → Oct 30 → Oct 31
6.19% → 6.13% → 6.27% → 6.33% → 6.28%
Weekly Avg: 6.24%
Mortgage Applications
Mortgage Purchase Applications (last 4 weeks):
170.6 → 166.0 → 157.3 → 164.3
Same period last year:
149.2 → 138.4 → 131.3 → 137.8
WoW: ⬆️ 4.5%
YoY: ⬆️ 19.2%
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 3.75-4.00%
Dec 10 Meeting Cut Odds:
25 bps cut 30.2%
No change 69.8%
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 35 (Fear)
Truflation Inflation Index: 2.69%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National
Buyers frame this as an opportunity as prices soften in pockets and inventory inches higher, with many expecting rates to drift lower into year-end.
Frustration lingers on affordability and lock-in, but the mood is cautiously optimistic as sellers negotiate more than in 2023.
Columbus
Posts skew bullish on Central Ohio as an affordable Midwest standout with job tailwinds.
Mentions of inventory up ~15% and 4–5% price softness suggest room for deals.
Investor chatter leans pro-buy given longer DOM and improving selection.
Pull-quote: “Sellers are finally negotiating again while rates glide lower. Feels like a buyer’s window if you’re ready.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
The market is transitioning into a late-fall pace. Inventory is materially higher than last year, price reductions are common, and showings per listing have eased. Median price is steady near $340K, YTD prices are modestly higher, and months of supply sits around 2.6, giving serious buyers more leverage, especially on homes with longer DOM or prior reductions.
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks
Rolling 4: Oct wk 2 ’25 – Oct wk 5 ’25 (10/05 – 11/01)
Closings: 2,234, ⬇️ 4.1% over LY
New Listings: 2,746, ⬆️ 26.3% over LY
Active Inventory: 5,638, ⬆️ 73.4% over LY and ⬇️ 2.4% WoW
Median Sales Price: $340,000, ⬆️ 4.6% over LY
Price Reductions: 60.4% of active listings have reduced
Avg DOM: 32, ⬆️ 23.1% over LY
Months of Supply: 2.6
Year to Date (YTD) Snapshot
Closings: 24,155, ⬆️ 0.0% over LY
Median Price: $339,000, ⬆️ 3.4% over LY
Avg $/SF: $213.11, ⬆️ 2.7% over LY
% LP/SP: 98.0%, ⬇️ 0.4% over LY
New Listings: 29,053, ⬆️ 12.7% over LY
Avg $/SF (last 4 wks sold): $211.61, ⬆️ 0.7% over LY
% LP/SP (last 4 wks): 98.3%, ⬆️ 1.0% over LY
Months of Supply: 2.57
Net Listings Gained LW: 94
Historically, November typically completes ~92% of yearly sales by month's end.
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 97.7. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
99.8 → 101.3 → 104.1 → 98.9
Same Period 2024:
100.3 → 88.7 → 96.4 → 93.4
⬇️ 5.0% WoW
⬆️ 5.9% YoY
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
3.6 → 3.5 → 3.5 → 3.4
Same Period 2024:
5.9 → 5.8 → 5.9 → 5.6
⬇️ 2.6% WoW
⬇️ 39.8% YoY
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
20,723 → 20,411 → 20,175 → 19,179
Same Period 2024:
19,380 → 19,139 → 19,096 → 18,367
⬇️ 4.9% WoW
⬆️ 4.4% YoY
Events 🌎📍
This week I’ll be in Atlanta learning & speaking at Mapped 4 More’s Business Planning Event! I’m excited to be training on using AI in our businesses, specifically on AEO, (Answer Engine Optimization), a marketing strategy for content to appear in AI-powered search results.
Here’s the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.