TL ; DR 📖
🏦 CPI cooler than forecasted, keeping Fed on track for another cut
📉 Mortgage rates near lowest levels of 2025 (6.19% avg last week)
🏠 Central Ohio remains a seller’s market, though balance is improving as inventory rises
The RealTea 🫖
Softer inflation data and another week of easing mortgage rates lifted market optimism ahead of the Fed’s October 29th meeting. While affordability remains tight, rates and supply continue to improve. Central Ohio continues to favor sellers overall, though conditions are slowly shifting toward a more balanced market as inventory expands.
Tailwinds
CPI came in below expectations, confirming cooling inflation
Mortgage rates remained near yearly lows
Anticipation of another Fed rate cut this week
Expanding for-sale inventory and continued new construction supply
Headwinds
Buyer affordability still strained versus income growth
Labor market softening could dampen confidence
Persistent price reductions needed for traction in some segments
Seasonal slowdown approaching year-end
Spotlight: CPI Comes In Lower Than Expected 🔦
September’s CPI confirmed steady disinflation, strengthening the Fed’s case for another cut. Shelter costs, one-third of the CPI basket, rose just 0.2%, while headline CPI increased 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY, both below expectations. Core CPI matched at 3.0% YoY. The data, released amid a federal shutdown, was one of the few windows into current economic conditions and showed price pressures easing across most categories.
Key Takeaways
Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM / +3.0% YoY
Core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +3.0% YoY
Shelter +0.2% MoM, energy +4.1% MoM (gasoline rebound)
Food +0.2%, broad goods prices stable
Inflation is now trending below 3.5% for the first time since early 2023
Markets expect another Fed cut this week
Why it matters for housing:
Cooler inflation reinforces a slower but durable easing cycle, helping mortgage rates stabilize near year-to-date lows and improving buyer confidence heading into Q4 and 2026.
Spotlight: NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun on the Fed Outlook 🔦
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun believes the Federal Reserve has shifted from fighting inflation toward stabilizing employment. After one cut in September, he anticipates two more before year-end and another three to four in 2026. Yun cites falling housing inflation and rising supply as reasons the Fed can ease without risking overheating. He sees a soft-landing scenario rather than a recession, driven by a cooling labor market and normalized price growth.
Key Takeaways
Two more Fed cuts likely before year-end
3–4 additional cuts possible in 2026
Labor market “showing a little wobble” but not collapsing
Housing inflation showing “no pressure”
Expanding apartment supply easing rent inflation
Slow, steady rate decline expected rather than sharp drop
Why it matters for housing:
A gradual easing path would keep rates drifting lower without spurring a speculative rebound, supporting sustainable housing demand into 2026.
Spotlight: Could Rates Reach 5.75% by Year-End? 🔦
Logan Mohtashami of HousingWire argues that four key factors could bring mortgage rates down to the lower bound of his 2025 forecast (5.75%–7.25%). The 10-year yield briefly fell below 4% last week, while mortgage rates hovered around 6.19%. He says most of the Fed cuts and soft labor data are already priced in, but additional weakness or a stock market pullback could drive the next leg lower.
Key Takeaways
10-year yield dipped below 4.0%, near 2025 lows
Mortgage spreads improving but still restrictive
Four drivers to reach 5.75%:
Weaker labor data
More dovish Fed tone
Stock market correction pulling money into bonds
Further spread compression
The low this year: 6.13%, with further easing possible
Macro Update 📊
Stock Market Performance Last Week
The major indices finished higher on cooler inflation and upbeat earnings.
Dow Jones: ⬆️ 2.23% WoW
S&P 500: ⬆️ 1.92% WoW
Nasdaq: ⬆️ 2.31% WoW
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance Last Week
Daily closes: 4.00% → 3.98% → 3.97% → 4.01% → 4.02%
Range: 3.97%–4.02%
WoW change: ⬆️ 2 bps
Stable yields suggest the bond market is waiting for confirmation of the Fed’s next move before repricing lower.
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Rates held near 2025 lows for a fourth straight week.
Oct 20 → Oct 21 → Oct 22 → Oct 23 → Oct 24
6.22% → 6.17% → 6.17% → 6.18% → 6.19%
Weekly Average: 6.19%
Mortgage Applications
Purchase demand declined week over week but remains significantly stronger vs last year at this time.
Mortgage Purchase Applications (last 4 weeks):
172.7 → 170.6 → 166.0 → 157.3Same Period 2024:
149.3 → 149.2 → 138.4 → 131.3WoW: ⬇️ 5.2%
YoY: ⬆️ 19.8%
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Markets are nearly unanimous that the Fed will cut 25 bps this week.
Current Target: 4.00%–4.25%
Oct 29 Meeting:
25 bps cut 96.2%
No change 3.8%
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 33 (Fear)
Truflation Inflation Index: 2.48%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National
Buyers are cautiously optimistic as rates fall and inventory rises. Affordability concerns still dominate, limiting pending sales growth.
“Biggest affordability freeze in modern history” remains the dominant phrase; rate relief is helping, but home prices stay sticky.
Columbus / Central Ohio
Local sentiment mirrors the national tone: more listings, more price adjustments, and steady interest from buyers waiting for the right fit.
Conversations center on balance rather than leverage shifts — sellers still hold the upper hand, but trends are moving toward equilibrium.
Pull Quote:
“Consumers are hopeful about rates but disciplined on price and payment.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Central Ohio remains a seller’s market, but the dynamics are gradually evolving toward a more balanced environment. Inventory is up nearly 72% YoY, giving buyers more choice without undermining price stability. Homes that are well-priced and well-presented continue to attract strong attention, while listings above market are seeing longer days and modest reductions. Sellers retain negotiating strength, but pricing precision matters more than ever.
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (09/28 – 10/25)
Closings: 2,361, ⬆️ 6.7% YoY
New Listings: 2,835, ⬆️ 26.8% YoY
Active Inventory: 5,567, ⬆️ 71.9% YoY • ⬇️ 1.3% WoW
Median Sale Price: $340,000, ⬆️ 3.0% YoY
Avg DOM: 31, ⬆️ 24.0% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.4
Price Reductions: 60.8% of active listings have reduced
Year-to-Date Snapshot
Closings: 23,524, ⬆️ 0.3% YoY
Median Sale Price: $339,000, ⬆️ 3.4% YoY
Avg $/SF: $213.18, ⬆️ 2.8% YoY
LP/SP: 98.0%, ⬇️ 0.4% YoY
New Listings: 28,391, ⬆️ 12.4% YoY
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 97.6. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
99.0 → 99.5 → 101.6 → 100.2
Same Period 2024:
90.3 → 100.3 → 88.7 → 96.4
⬇️ 1.4% WoW
⬆️ 3.8% YoY
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
3.8 → 3.7 → 3.6 → 3.6
Same Period 2024:
6.0 → 5.9 → 5.8 → 5.9
⬆️ 0.1% WoW
⬇️ 38.5% YoY
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
21,275 → 20,723 → 20,411 → 20,175
Same Period 2024:
19,588 → 19,380 → 19,139 → 19,096
⬇️ 1.2% WoW
⬆️ 5.7% YoY
Local Events 🌎📍
Columbus Investors Club 10/29 - Register Here: http://bit.ly/3IUIoVU
Here’s the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.