The RealTea 🫖
The bond market tracked lower yields for most of the week, reinforcing mid-6% mortgage rates. The Beige Book confirmed soft but stable economic conditions, which supports the case for gradual easing instead of further tightening. Locally, Central Ohio inventory is growing steadily year over year, improving leverage for buyers while prices hold firm.
Tailwinds
10-year steady near 4.0%
Mortgage rates holding near year-to-date lows
Fed cut expectations firmly priced in
Headwinds
Mortgage purchase apps declined WoW
Shutdown muted borrower confidence and delayed federal loan processing
Affordability still restrictive for first-time buyers
TL ; DR 📖
Macro
🟢 Mortgage rates stable hovering around 6.23%
🟢 Beige Book reinforced gradual easing narrative
🔻 Mortgage apps soft WoW
Central Ohio
📈 Inventory higher YoY but building gradually
📉 Showings per listing still well below LY
📈 Raw showing counts up YoY
Spotlight: Beige Book Latest Release 🔦
The Beige Book is a qualitative survey released eight times a year by the Federal Reserve summarizing real-time economic conditions across the 12 Fed districts. It is released about two weeks before each FOMC meeting and often influences Treasury yields because it shapes expectations for Fed interest rate policy.
What It Showed
Activity mostly flat or softer across districts
Rate-sensitive sectors still cooling
Price pressures sticky in some services
Data consistent with gradual easing
Why This One Was Buzzier
Released during week three of the government shutdown
Highlighted fiscal “downside risks” tied to prolonged disruption
Elevated tariff-related cost pressures
Labor market softening (not collapsing)
Reinforced rate-cut expectations heading into the Fed meeting
Why it matters for mortgage rates
The Beige Book does not forecast housing directly, but by shaping policy expectations, it influences Treasury yields, which in turn set mortgage rates.
Spotlight: Treasury Yield Rollercoaster Last Week 🔦
Midweek volatility pushed the 10-year yield briefly under 4% before stabilizing Friday. Because mortgage rates track the 10-year closely, this supported mid-6% pricing.
Recap
Softer manufacturing data triggered a flight to safety
Regional banking risks amplified the move
Yields rebounded as fears eased late week
Mortgage pricing held most of the gains
Key Economic Reports This Week 👀
This week brings a cluster of high-impact reports covering inflation, the labor market, business activity, and housing demand, all of which play a major role in shaping Treasury yields and mortgage rates heading into the late-October Fed meeting. Because the Federal Reserve is in a “data-dependent” posture, even small surprises can shift rate expectations.
What’s being released
CPI & PPI: The clearest read on inflation pressure.
Jobless Claims & JOLTS: Indicators for labor market cooling vs resilience.
Retail Sales & PMIs: Real-time pulse of consumer and business activity.
Existing/New Home Sales: How rates are translating into actual housing demand.
Why we’re paying attention
If inflation comes in soft, markets will likely increase bets on rate cuts, keeping yields near or below 4%.
If labor weakens further, it strengthens the argument for Fed easing.
If consumer spending falls, it reinforces economic slowdown signals.
If housing prints are weak, it highlights rate sensitivity and strengthens the policy case for relief.
Rate implications
Soft data: Supports lower yields → steady or slightly lower mortgage rates.
Hot data: Could reverse some of last week’s rate gains → upward pressure on borrowing costs.
In short, this is a “direction-setting” week, not for the Fed itself, but for the bond market’s expectations going into the upcoming FOMC decision.
Macro Update 📊
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Markets rebounded late in the week as regional bank risk eased and tariff fears cooled.
Dow Jones: ⬆️ 1.6% WoW
S&P 500: ⬆️ 1.7% WoW
Nasdaq: ⬆️ 2.1% WoW
10-Year US Treasury Yield
Daily closes: 4.03% → 4.05% → 3.99% → 4.02%
Range: 3.99% to 4.05%
Net move: ⬇️ ~3 bps
Lower yields sustained favorable rate conditions.
10 yr yield, YTD - https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Oct 13 → Oct 14 → Oct 15 → Oct 16 → Oct 17:
6.32% → 6.31% → 6.27% → 6.23% → 6.23%Weekly avg: 6.27%
Rates remain near 2025 lows.
30 yr fixed MND - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
Mortgage Purchase Applications
Purchase apps (last 4 weeks):
174.5 → 172.7 → 170.6 → 166.0
Same period last year:
144.8 → 136.6 → 137.5 → 129.8
⬇️ 2.7% WoW
⬆️ 19.9% YoY
MBA Purchase Index - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 4.0–4.25%
Next Meeting (Oct 29):
Odds of 25 bps cut: 99.0%
Odds of 50 bps cut: 1.0%
Odds of no cut: 0.0%
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index
Current reading: 27 (Fear)
Truflation Inflation Index: 2.28%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National section
Posts skew cautious. Most users still call it a seller-leaning market, with affordability frustrations dominating even as rates drift lower. Inventory is up in many metros, trimming bidding wars but not resetting prices.
Expectations favor further rate relief into 5 to 6 percent ranges next year. Some optimism for activity returning, but the majority still says it is a bad time to buy unless life events force a move.
Columbus section
Tone tilts more constructive than national chatter. More listings and slightly longer market times give buyers leverage. Local development and migration stories add confidence even with rate sensitivity.
Agents cite pricing and inspection issues as reasons homes sit, which is opening negotiation lanes. Community investment themes show up in several posts.
Affordability remains mixed, but buyers feel more empowered than peers in other markets.
Pull-quote
“Rates are easing, but sticker shock and uncertainty still rule buyer psychology.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Inventory is gradually building compared with last year, creating more balance while still remaining a seller-favored market. Prices are holding steady, showings per listing are flat week over week, and raw showing activity is still higher than a year ago. With affordability better than last year, buyers have slightly more leverage, especially on homes requiring condition or price improvement.
Stats From the Last 4 Weeks
Closings: 2,415, ⬆️ 6.3% YoY
New Listings: 2,866, ⬆️ 24.2% YoY
Active Inventory: 5,563, ⬆️ 67.5% YoY
Median Price: $335,000, ⬆️ 1.5% YoY
Avg DOM: 31, ⬆️ 24.0% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.3
YTD Snapshot
Closings: 22,969, ⬆️ 0.2% YoY
Median Price: $338,300, ⬆️ 3.2% YoY
Avg $/SF: $213.22, ⬆️ 2.8% YoY
New Listings: 27,818, ⬆️ 12.3% YoY
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $71,680, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.20% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 97.5. As of July 2025, the National Affordability Index is 98.8 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
103.9 → 98.7 → 100.2 → 101.9
Same Period 2024:
97.2 → 87.9 → 97.6 → 86.3
⬆️ 1.7% WoW
⬆️ 18.1% YoY
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
3.7 → 3.8 → 3.7 → 3.7
Same Period 2024:
6.2 → 6.0 → 5.9 → 5.8
0.0% WoW
⬇️ 36.2% YoY
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
20,679 → 21,275 → 20,723 → 20,411
Same Period 2024:
19,908 → 19,588 → 19,380 → 19,139
⬇️ 1.5% WoW
⬆️ 6.6% YoY
Local Events 🌎📍📆
Real Estate Rendezvous 10/22 - Register Here 👉 http://bit.ly/42C0nXO
Columbus Investors Club 10/29 - Register Here 👉 http://bit.ly/3IUIoVU
Here’s the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.