TL;DR ā Macro + Central Ohio š
Macro
ā¢ ā¬ļø 10-year yields down 13 bps WoW
ā¢ ā¬ļø Major stock indices fell 2ā3% WoW on tariff fears
ā¢ ā¬ļø Mortgage rates dropped to 6.32%, lowest since Fed Day
ā¢ ā¬ļø Purchase apps -1.2% WoW, ā¬ļø 14.3% YoY
Central Ohio
ā¢ ā¬ļø Inventory +67.9% YoY, now leveling off near 5,500 homes
ā¢ ā¬ļø New Listings +20.8% YoY
ā¢ ā¬ļø Closings +5.6% YoY
ā¢ ā¬ļø Showings per Listing ā36.3% YoY
ā¢ ā¬ļø Affordability +4.7% YoY
The RealTea š«
Markets ended the week volatile but bond-friendly, as new tariff threats from the White House sent stocks lower and yields down. Mortgage rates reached their lowest point since the September Fed meeting, offering a brief affordability lift.
In Central Ohio, inventory remains historically high but has steadied over recent weeks, suggesting a maturing market with more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers.
Tailwinds
ā¢ Mortgage rates dropped to a one-month low
ā¢ Fed speakers signaled another rate cut likely later this month
ā¢ High, steady inventory continues to give buyers more selection
Headwinds
ā¢ Tariff escalation poses fresh inflation risk
ā¢ Buyer activity continues to soften as the fall market cools
ā¢ Affordability challenges persist despite rate relief
Spotlight: Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day š¦
Mortgage rates posted their sharpest daily drop in weeks after renewed tariff headlines sparked a bond rally and a mid-day reprice across lenders.
Trumpās new threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods sent stocks sharply lower and triggered a flight to safety in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
Bond prices rallied, pulling yields down and allowing lenders to issue improved rate sheets by Friday afternoon.
The average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.32%, its lowest level since the September 17 Fed meeting.
For buyers, the move created a short window of improved affordability heading into mid-October.
Spotlight: Tariff Whiplash - Markets Plunge, Then Rebound š¦
Financial markets ended last week in turmoil after renewed U.S./China tariff threats reignited trade war fears, sending stocks lower and bonds sharply higher. However, those losses were partially reversed heading into Monday, after President Trump took a softer tone on social media late Sunday, easing investor worries and helping markets bounce back.
Friday Sell-Off (Oct 10): The White House announced plans for 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, citing retaliation against Chinaās rare earth export restrictions. Stocks plunged, wiping out mid-week gains. The S&P 500 fell 2.4%, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 13 bps to 4.05%. Safe-haven demand surged as investors exited equities, fueling a strong bond rally that pushed mortgage rates to one-month lows.
Weekend Reversal (Oct 12): Sentiment flipped late Sunday when President Trump posted a softer message on X: āDonāt worry about China, it will all be fine!... The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!ā The de-escalatory tone was interpreted as a signal of backchannel progress ahead of the TrumpāXi summit.
Futures & Monday Bounce: Within hours, Dow futures surged nearly 400 points (+0.9%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures each rising around 1%. The rally extended into Mondayās Columbus Day session. S&P 500 +1.14%, Nasdaq +~2%, Dow +~1%, recouping roughly 40% of Fridayās losses.
Outlook: The quick rebound highlights marketsā sensitivity to tariff headlines and the āTACO tradeā (Trump Always Chickens Out) narrative that investors lean on for short-term relief. Economists see yields staying between 4.0ā4.2% near term, with volatility likely to persist as both sides position ahead of the TrumpāXi summit.
Macro Update š
Stock Market Performance Last Week
The major indices finished deeply in the red after tariff threats reignited volatility.
ā¢ Dow Jones: ā¬ļø 2.75% WoW (46,758 ā 45,480)
ā¢ S&P 500: ā¬ļø 2.42% WoW (6,716 ā 6,553)
ā¢ Nasdaq: ā¬ļø 2.53% WoW (22,781 ā 22,204)
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Oct 6 ā Oct 7 ā Oct 8 ā Oct 9 ā Oct 10
6.38% ā 6.38% ā 6.36% ā 6.38% ā 6.32%
Weekly Average: 6.36%
Todayās Rate: 6.32%
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance
Oct 6 ā Oct 7 ā Oct 8 ā Oct 9 ā Oct 10
4.18% ā 4.14% ā 4.13% ā 4.14% ā 4.05%
ā¬ļø 13 bps over the week
Yields fell steadily as the bond market rallied on risk-off sentiment.
Mortgage Applications
Purchase Applications (Last 4 Weeks):
174.0 ā 174.5 ā 172.7 ā 170.6
Same Period 2024:
147.0 ā 144.8 ā 136.6 ā 137.5
ā¬ļø 1.2% WoW
ā¬ļø 14.3% YoY
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 4.0ā4.25%
Next Meeting (Oct 29):
97.8% odds of 25 bps cut
2.2% odds of no cut
Markets are fully pricing another rate cut this month.
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 32 (Fear)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.23%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) š¢
National
Tariff tensions rattled markets, sending stocks lower and bonds higher. The resulting yield decline pulled mortgage rates to a one-month low, while Fed minutes and speeches signaled continued debate over future cuts. The market tone is risk-off but bond-friendly, supporting near-term rate stability.
Columbus / Central Ohio
Locally, inventory remains high but stable around 5,500 active listings, indicating a market settling into balance rather than accelerating higher. Sales and prices are modestly up YoY, yet showing activity and contract volume continue to cool as fall sets in. Price reductions are widespread, signaling a more disciplined and data-driven marketplace.
Pull-Quote:
āRates are easing and inventory is holding steady ā the marketās shifting from scarcity to stability.ā
Central Ohio Market Update Ā šš
Market Dynamics: A Sellerās Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Central Ohioās housing market is now defined by equilibrium more than acceleration. Elevated inventory and longer market times give buyers room to negotiate, but steady prices show underlying demand remains healthy. Sellers must price competitively as the market normalizes heading into year-end.
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (09/14ā10/11)
ā¢ Closings: 2,378 ā¬ļø 5.6% YoY
ā¢ New Listings: 2,813 ā¬ļø 20.8% YoY
ā¢ Active Inventory: 5,532 ā¬ļø 67.9% YoY ā¬ļø 0.2% WoW
ā¢ Median Price: $335,000 ā¬ļø 1.5% YoY
ā¢ Avg DOM: 30 ā¬ļø 15.4% YoY
ā¢ Months of Supply: 2.3
ā¢ 60.5% of Active Listings Reduced Price
Year-to-Date Snapshot
ā¢ Closings: 22,358 ā¬ļø 0.1% YoY
ā¢ Median Price: $338,052 ā¬ļø 3.2% YoY
ā¢ Avg $/SF: $213.34 ā¬ļø 2.9% YoY
ā¢ LP/SP Ratio: 98.2% ā¬ļø 0.4% YoY
ā¢ New Listings: 27,176 ā¬ļø 12.4% YoY
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? š¤
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 97.5. As of June 2025, the National Affordability Index is 94.4 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FREDĀ®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
100.1 ā 103.9 ā 98.7 ā 102.2
Same Period 2024:
95.3 ā 97.2 ā 87.9 ā 97.6
ā¬ļø 3.5% WoW
ā¬ļø 4.7% YoY
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
4.1 ā 3.7 ā 3.9 ā 3.7
Same Period 2024:
6.3 ā 6.2 ā 6.0 ā 5.9
ā¬ļø 2.8% WoW
ā¬ļø 36.3% YoY
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
22,593 ā 20,679 ā 21,275 ā 20,723
Same Period 2024:
20,209 ā 19,908 ā 19,588 ā 19,380
ā¬ļø 2.6% WoW
ā¬ļø 6.9% YoY
Local Events Ā ššš
Real Estate Rendezvous 10/22 - Register Here š http://bit.ly/42C0nXO
Columbus Investors Club 10/29 - Register Here š http://bit.ly/3IUIoVU
Hereās the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORSĀ® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.