Spotlight: Government Shutdown & Housing Market Impact 🔦
The government shutdown entered day 6 on October 6. While essential services continue, furloughs and suspended functions are creating ripple effects across the housing sector.
Conventional loans: Proceed normally, minimal impact.
FHA/VA loans: Mostly operational, but manual reviews and regional paperwork could cause delays.
USDA loans: Hardest hit, with guarantees and verifications largely paused.
Flood insurance: Still active short-term but at risk if FEMA authority lapses. Private options are still available.
For real estate professionals, the main issues are:
Closing timelines stretched by 30–60 days for affected loans.
Potential delays in appraisals and verifications that require federal staff.
A “data blackout” as shutdown pauses key economic reports, leaving bond and rate markets guessing.
Markets historically lean risk-off during shutdowns, which can push Treasury yields, and potentially mortgage rates, lower. But volatility and uncertainty can widen MBS spreads, likely reducing the benefit for mortgage rates. Strategy during the shutdown: emphasize conventional loans when possible, build extra time into FHA/VA/USDA contracts, and set expectations early with buyers and sellers.
Spotlight: Jobs Reports Last Week and Fed Cut Outlook 🔦
Labor market data confirmed a weakening trend last week, adding weight to the case for further Fed easing.
ADP Private Payrolls: -32K jobs in September, second consecutive monthly decline
BLS Nonfarm Payrolls: +22K, well below consensus (45–75K)
Unemployment: Rose to 4.3%
Wages: Slowed to +0.3% MoM, +3.7% YoY (down from August’s +3.9%)
Implications for Fed policy:
Oct 29 FOMC odds: 94.6% chance of a 25 bps cut, 5.4% chance of no change.
Market outlook: Futures now imply ~75 bps of total cuts by year-end.
Bond reaction: Treasury yields dipped as investors sought safety, adding modest downward pressure on mortgage rates.
Implications for housing:
Weaker jobs → lower consumer confidence and purchase intent.
Softer data → stronger case for Fed cuts, eventually nudging the cost of borrowing down.
The next big factor in the Fed’s direction will be upcoming inflation reports. If CPI and PCE confirm cooling, incremental cuts are likely, with mortgage rates easing further. If inflation reignites, rate relief could stall, leaving housing in limbo.
The RealTea 🫖
The housing market faced mixed signals last week. On one side, falling Treasury yields and a cooling jobs report supported expectations for more Fed rate cuts, which could ease borrowing costs. On the other hand, the government shutdown delayed key data and created uncertainty, while mortgage rates remained slightly higher despite the Fed’s September cut.
Tailwinds:
Treasury yields declined on safe-haven buying during the shutdown
Rising odds of an October Fed cut (94%+ probability)
Headwinds:
Government shutdown delays in data and loan processing, especially FHA/USDA
National buyer sentiment still negative due to affordability stress
TL ; DR 📖
TL;DR – Macro & Central OH
📉 Jobs reports weak, unemployment up to 4.3% → boosted Fed cut odds
🏛️ Government shutdown delays economic data and slows gov-backed loans
🏠 Central OH inventory up ⬆️ 66.7% YoY, affordability improved with updated median income data, but still strained
Macro Update 📊
Stock Market Performance Last Week
All three major indices ended the week higher despite the government shutdown, with mid-week record highs before a mixed Friday close.
Dow Jones: +1.1% (46,758.28)
S&P 500: +1.1% (6,715.79)
Nasdaq: +1.3% (22,780.51)
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance Last Week
Yields moved lower on shutdown concerns and weak labor data, before ticking up slightly Friday.
Range: 4.16% high (Sep 29) → 4.10% low (Oct 2) → closed at 4.13% Oct 3
Trend: Overall decline, reflecting safe-haven demand and rising Fed cut expectations
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Sep 29 → Sep 30 → Oct 1 → Oct 2 → Oct 3
6.38% → 6.37% → 6.37% → 6.36% → 6.34%
Weekly Avg: 6.36%
Today’s Rates sit around 6.34%
Mortgage Applications
Last 4 weeks:
169.1 → 174.0 → 174.5 → 172.7
Same period 2024:
143.7 → 147.0 → 144.8 → 136.6
WoW ⬇️ 1%
YoY ⬆️ 15.7%
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 4.0–4.25%
Oct 29 meeting probabilities:
No cut: 5.4%
25 bps cut: 94.6%
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 57 (Greed)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.22%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National:
Conversations reflected frustration over affordability, with many users calling the market “stuck” or “frozen.” Inventory is rising, but high prices and weak demand are keeping activity muted.
Mortgage rates near 6.3% were seen as easing slightly, but most users expect limited relief ahead. Over half said they wouldn’t buy regardless of rates due to economic jitters.
Columbus:
Local chatter echoed national discouragement, with affordability still top of mind even as rates dipped modestly. Buyers voiced hesitation, seeing little real relief.
Multifamily permitting made waves, with Columbus ranking top-10 nationally for supply growth. This was noted as a potential balance for renters and buyers over time.
Overall tone was cautious: prices remain elevated, new builds limited, and demand hesitant, though supply momentum offers a glimmer of balance.
Pull-quote:
“Inventory is climbing and options are growing, but affordability is being crushed. Buyers feel stuck and sellers remain hesitant.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Central Ohio activity remains strong on the supply side, with new listings up nearly 19% YoY and active inventory 67% higher. Closings are modestly up, but affordability improvements reflect a higher median income release rather than rate-driven relief. Buyers have more leverage with price reductions, though demand is holding steady with raw showings up nearly 9% YoY.
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (09/07–10/04)
Closings: 2,380 ⬆️ 3.2% YoY
New Listings: 2,849 ⬆️ 18.9% YoY
Active Inventory: 5,427 ⬆️ 66.7% YoY ⬇️ 0.8% WoW
Median Price: $331,350 ⬇️ 2.1% YoY
60.0% of actives w/ price reduction
Avg DOM: 30 ⬆️ 20.0% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.3
YTD Snapshot
Closings: 21,816 ⬇️ 0.0% YoY
Median Price: $338,052 ⬆️ 3.1% YoY
Avg $/SF: $213.33 ⬆️ 2.8% YoY
% LP/SP: 98.2% ⬇️ 0.3% YoY
New Listings: 26,579 ⬆️ 12.6% YoY
Showings & Affordability
Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔
Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $76,536, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.80% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 97.3 (using updated median income applied to the entire year). As of June 2025, the National Affordability Index is 94.4 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).
Franklin County Affordability Index, Last 4 Weeks:
107.4 → 99.5 → 103.7 → 98.7
Same Period 2024:
94.2 → 95.3 → 97.2 → 87.9
WoW: ⬇️ 4.8%
YoY: ⬆️ 12.3%
Note: Numbers look higher than in prior updates because the median income was revised upward (from $71,680 to $76,536 per the American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates).
2
Showings per Listing (last 4 weeks):
3.9 → 4.1 → 3.8 → 3.9
Same Period 2024:
6.4 → 6.3 → 6.2 → 6.0
WoW: ⬆️ 2.6%
YoY: ⬇️ 34.8%
Raw Showings Last 4 Weeks:
21,710 → 22,593 → 20,679 → 21,275
Same Period 2024:
20,536 → 20,209 → 19,908 → 19,588
WoW: ⬆️ 2.9%
YoY: ⬆️ 8.6%
Here’s the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.