🍵 Market Update 09/29│Central Ohio Q4 Preview

Q4 consistently ranks as the third-strongest quarter for closed sales in Central Ohio, accounting for 24.1% of annual closings. However, Q4 is also the weakest period for contracts (just 20.7% of yearly under contracts), meaning much of what closes in Q4 was actually inked in Q3. This sets up Q1 as the slowest quarter of the year for closings, since fewer homes go under contract in Q4 to carry over into January and February.

For buyers, this creates opportunities. Competition tends to cool off, especially in late Q4, allowing more leverage in negotiations and potentially better terms. Sellers who are already under contract benefit from strong closings, but those listing later in the year may face longer DOM and more price pressure. Investors can find bargains during this slowdown, but should remember that Q1 comps may appear softer due to the thin contract volume late in Q4. Agents should view Q4 as pipeline-building season, knowing that a lighter Q1 is almost guaranteed.

A critical seasonal factor is the sharp drop in buyer activity around the holidays. Historically, showings fall by more than 32% when comparing October through Thanksgiving to the weeks after Thanksgiving to year-end. That means activity gets cut by a third as buyers pause for the holidays. Sellers who list after Thanksgiving must price sharply and expect fewer showings, while buyers and investors who stay active during this period may find motivated sellers more willing to negotiate.

For Buyers: Slower showing activity after Thanksgiving could mean less competition.
For Sellers: Best positioned if already in contract by Q3; late-Q4 sellers may face longer DOM.
For Investors: Seasonal slowdown offers leverage in negotiation on the buy-side.
For Agents: Use Q4 to build your pipeline for Q1, knowing transaction volume will dip.

The 10-year Treasury yield could be heavily influenced this week by economic labor data and the looming risk of a government shutdown. For real estate, this matters because bond yields drive mortgage rates (stronger data sends rates higher, weaker data brings them down).

Key Factors Impacting Yields:

Why We’re Watching Closely:
When employment data weakens, investors expect the Fed to cut rates. That drives demand for Treasuries, which pushes bond prices up and yields down, bringing mortgage rates lower since they closely track the 10-year yield.

Momentum was driven by AI optimism (Nvidia investing in OpenAI).

Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.

Central Ohio continues to see a more balanced but slower market. Inventory and new listings remain elevated compared to last year, giving buyers more choice, while affordability has improved modestly in recent weeks. Price reductions are widespread, and days on market are trending higher. Year to date, sales are only slightly below 2024, while prices and $/SF are still holding positive gains, reflecting overall stability despite affordability headwinds.

Showings & Affordability

Question: Where would rates need to be for Franklin County to have an Affordability Index of 100? 🤔

Answer: Assuming a median home price of $340,000 & a median income of $71,680, mortgage rates would need to be at 5.20% to achieve an Affordability Index of 100 - ie, a family with the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home. The average weekly Affordability Index for 2025 in Franklin Co. is 91.2. As of June 2025, the National Affordability Index is 94.4 (Source: National Association of Realtors via FRED®).

🚀 The next Real Estate Rendezvous is all about your 2026 blueprint for success.

Topics Include:

📊 Market forecast
🤖 Implementing AI in your business
📝 Business planning strategies

Don’t miss this session designed to set you up for an amazing 2026!

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Here’s the data:

Side-By-Side Data, Sept Week 4, 2025 - Central Ohio (2023-2025)

Central Ohio Market Update, Sept Week 4, 2025