Powell @ Jackson Hole - Dovish Tilt Lifts Sept Cut Odds ⚡🎤
During his speech at Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell noted rising labor risks and hinted at policy flexibility, which markets read as a dovish tilt heading into September.
What he said:
Labor market: Noted softening with growing “downside risks to employment.”
Tariffs and inflation: Acknowledged tariff-linked price pressure but suggested effects could be shorter-lived.
Tone: Described a “curious balance” in labor conditions, urging caution and data dependence.
Policy path: Said the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” widely interpreted as opening the door to a September cut.
Impact:
Housing: Mortgage rates fell to YTD lows, boosting refi interest and marginally improving affordability. Buyer demand could improve substantially if rates drift lower.
Mortgage rates horizon: The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. Cuts can pull the 10-year Treasury yield lower, and then lenders could reprice mortgage rates. Keep in mind, though, that a future rate cut could be priced in before the cut actually occurs, meaning a cut in September might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates.
The RealTea đź«–
Mortgage Rates set a new YTD low after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole set a cautious tone about labor risks. Nationally, purchase demand held steady, while rising inventory and wider builder incentives continued to shift leverage toward buyers. In Central Ohio, Active supply is DOWN ~1% over last week. Over the course of 2025, we’ve seen a weekly average gain in inventory of about 2%.
Tailwinds: 10-year bond yields eased, Mortgage rates @ at YTD lows, refi interest picked up, September Fed cut is likely.
Headwinds: Rates are still high, affordability remains tight, builder confidence is weak, and sellers face more pressure & competition due to significantly higher inventory levels.
TL ; DR đź“–
Macro
Mortgage Rates Weekly Avg 6.59%.
Purchase apps: ⬆️ 0.1% WoW, ⬆️ 22.7% YoY.
Fear & Greed 61, Truflation 2.12%.
Markets are pricing in a September Fed cut.
Central OH
Active inventory: ⬆️ 72.1% YoY, ⬇️ 0.95% WoW.
Median price $342,250: ⬇️ 2.44% WoW, ⬆️ 2.2% YoY.
Showings per listing: ⬇️ 0.8% WoW, ⬇️ 33.3% YoY.
Months of supply 2.2.
Macro Update đź“Š
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Dow: +1.5%
S&P 500: +0.3%
Nasdaq: -0.6%
30-Year Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Applications
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch Tool)
Sept 17, 2025: 25 bp cut 84.7%, no cut 15.3%
Oct 29, 2025 (after a Sep cut): no additional cut 49.1%, another 25 bp 43.5%
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 61 (Greed)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.12%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National
Posts see a buyer tilt from rising inventory, frequent price cuts, and builder incentives, but high rates and prices still dampen enthusiasm.
Users expect Fed cuts to help slowly, with talk of a short demand pop, not a lasting shift, and risks that yields rebound.
Columbus
Residential chatter is sparse; threads skew to commercial deals and infrastructure. One cited a 177,680 sq. ft. industrial acquisition signaling investment and redevelopment.
Another highlighted a proposed 1,000-mile interstate corridor through Columbus that could boost connectivity and the regional economy, with indirect implications for near-term housing demand.
No clear buyer or seller sentiment stands out; themes mirror national affordability concerns without unique trends, though long-run projects may support demand.
Pull-quote
“X users see leverage inching toward buyers as inventory and price cuts rise, yet affordability pain persists, so many await Fed cuts before stepping in.”
Central Ohio Market Update  🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller's Market transitioning toward buyer-friendly conditions.
Inventory is still substantially higher than last year, but last week saw a WoW decrease in active listings by about 1%. Price reductions are common & affordability remains tight, even as rates tick lower.
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks (07/27 - 08/23)
Closings: 2,466, ⬆️ 0.7% YoY
New Listings: 3,106, ⬆️ 25.4% YoY
Active Inventory: 5,291, ⬆️ 72.1% YoY, ⬇️ 1.0% WoW
Under Contract/Pendings WoW: ⬆️ 6.37%
Median Sale Price: $342,250, ⬆️ 2.2% YoY
Avg DOM: 28, ⬆️ 40.0% YoY
Months of Supply: 2.2
Price Reductions: 58.8% of actives have reduced at some point
Avg reduction from original ask: 6.5%
Year-to-Date (YTD) Snapshot
Closings: 18,096, ⬇️ 1.1% YoY
Median Sale Price: $338,000, ⬆️ 4.0% YoY
Avg $/SF: $213.24, ⬆️ 2.9% YoY
% of Ask Received: 98.5%, ⬇️ 0.3% YoY
New Listings: 22,897, ⬆️ 14.3% YoY
Affordability & Buyer Activity
NEW METRIC!
A NEW METRIC We’re Tracking: Raw Showings
Note: We’re tracking total buyer tours across all listings, which helps separate true engagement from showings-per-listing that can shift with inventory. We are still figuring out how this connects to buyer demand, but for now, we will share the weekly YoY trend and update you as we learn more!
Raw showings are up solidly year over year in each of the last four weeks, averaging ⬆️13.3%, but contracts did not have the same pace, averaging ⬆️4.9%. The gap suggests buyers are active, but are comparison-shopping for longer, across a larger inventory pool, before writing an offer. We’re seeing a longer path from first showing to accepted offer.
More choices = more shopping before pulling the trigger on an offer
📢Columbus Investors Club - Inaugural Meetup THIS THURSDAY, 08/28! 📢
📣 I’m excited to be speaking on a panel at the inaugural Columbus Investors Club meetup.
🔥Hosted by Josh & Tiffany High (who lock up 250+ contracts/year), this event is about real deal flow, market shifts, and what’s working right now.
âś… Learn how investors are pivoting in this market
âś… Hear what agents are seeing on the ground
âś… Connect with serious investors doing business in Columbus
🗓️ Thursday, August 28; 6:00 - 8:00 PM
đź“Ť Ohio Brewing Company, 421 E 2nd Ave, Columbus, OH 43201
🍻 Drinks & Food provided!
🎟️ Grab your spot here → TICKETS
Here’s the data:
All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.