🍵Market Update 08/18 │🔥Investor Meetup │ CPI🥶, PPI🥵

📢Columbus Investors Club - Inaugural Meetup 08/28 📢

📣 I’m excited to be speaking on a panel at the inaugural Columbus Investors Club meetup.

🔥Hosted by Josh & Tiffany High (who lock up 250+ contracts/year), this event is about real deal flow, market shifts, and what’s working right now.

✅ Learn how investors are pivoting in this market
✅ Hear what agents are seeing on the ground
✅ Connect with serious investors doing business in Columbus
🗓️ Thursday, August 28; 6:00 - 8:00 PM
📍 Ohio Brewing Company, 421 E 2nd Ave, Columbus, OH 43201
🍻 Drinks & Food provided!

🎟️ Grab your spot here → TICKETS

Spotlight 🔦 | Generational Housing Trends

The 2025 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Generation Trends report highlights how different generations approach buying and selling homes in today’s market. Millennials remain the largest share of buyers, Boomers dominate as sellers, and Gen Z is only beginning to start the homeownership journey. Financing methods, household income, and motivations to move vary widely by age group, shaping today’s housing dynamics.

Highlights:

Millennials (26–44) make up 29% of buyers; younger millennials are the most educated and most likely to be first-time buyers.
Gen X (45–59) are the highest earners ($130K median income) and the most likely to buy multi-generational homes.
Baby Boomers (60–78) account for 42% of buyers and 53% of sellers, often downsizing or relocating near family.
Gen Z (18–25) is just 3% of buyers and typically purchase older, smaller homes.
Financing patterns differ: younger buyers lean on savings and family gifts, while older buyers use proceeds from previous sales.

Takeaway: The data shows that younger baby boomers (ages 60–69) and Gen Xers (ages 45–59) now make up about half of today’s home buyers. Millennials, who many thought would lead the market, make up less than a third. This shift isn’t just about age, though, it reflects how tough affordability has become for younger buyers.

Key Concerns:

Delayed First-Time Buying: The average age of a first-time buyer rose from 28 in 1991 to 38 in 2024, showing how much harder it is for young people to buy a home.
Affordability Gap: A median-priced home now requires an income of around $114,000, but the average U.S. salary is only about half that, keeping many younger buyers out.
Wealth Transfer Bottleneck: Buying a home has long been the main way to build wealth. Today’s high prices and interest rates are slowing that process, leaving more ownership with older generations who already have equity.

2025 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Generation Trends

The RealTea 🫖

Cooling CPI data brought mortgage rates to their lowest level since October 2024, sparking stronger purchase application activity. However, a hotter-than-expected PPI print midweek dampened enthusiasm and raised concerns about wholesale inflation feeding into future consumer prices. Locally, Central Ohio continues to see a surge of new listings, rising inventory, and higher days on market, giving buyers more leverage, all while affordability remains a major concern among consumers.

Conflicting CPI & PPI Send Mixed Inflation Signals 🤔

Last week, the U.S. economy delivered conflicting inflation signals. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July came in cooler than expected at 🔼 0.2% MoM and 🔼 2.7% YoY, supporting the disinflation trend and further supporting expectations for a Fed rate cut. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 🔼 0.9% MoM, the largest increase in three years, and 🔼 3.3% YoY, raising concerns about persistent wholesale cost pressures.

Conflicting CPI and PPI Messages: CPI came in cool, while PPI came in hot, showing a split between consumer prices and wholesale costs.
Overall Inflation Sentiment: The softer CPI gave hope that inflation is moving closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, but the jump in PPI raised concerns that inflation pressures may stick around longer.
PPI’s Potential Impact on CPI: Higher wholesale costs can push up consumer prices if they continue, though many businesses are holding off on passing those costs to buyers for now.
Looking Ahead: If companies start raising prices, PPI could drive CPI higher. This makes a September Fed rate cut less certain, because the Fed’s two main goals are keeping inflation low and unemployment low, and hot PPI may make them think inflation is not yet under control.

TL ; DR 📖

🏦 Macro: CPI came in slightly below expectations (“cool” - 🔼 0.2% MoM, 🔼 2.7% YoY) but PPI came in above expectations (“hot” - 🔼 0.9% MoM, 🔼 3.3% YoY), sending mixed inflation signals.

📉 Rates: Mortgage rates fell to 🔽 6.58% (2025 low), fueling purchase apps @ 🔼 1.4% WoW and 🔼 16.3% YoY.

📊 Markets: Stocks rallied to record highs on CPI optimism before softening on PPI worries.

🏡 Central Ohio Inventory: 5,239 active homes, 🔼 72.8% YoY; new listings 🔼 26.8% YoY.

📅 Central OH Sales Activity: Closings 🔽 4.8% YoY, DOM up to 27 days (🔼 28.6% YoY), 58.5% of actives with price reductions.

💲 Central OH Prices & Demand: Median sales price $345K (🔼 1.5% YoY), but showings per listing are 🔽 37% YoY.

Macro Update 📊

Stock Market Performance Last Week

Dow Jones: 🔼 2.06% (43,975 → 44,911)
S&P 500: 🔼 0.85% (6,396 → ~6,450)
Nasdaq: 🔼 0.86% (21,496 → ~21,682)
Drivers: CPI-driven optimism fueled rallies early; PPI and weaker consumer sentiment capped gains late week.

30-Year Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Applications

Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch Tool)

Sept 17 Meeting: 84.3% chance of 25 bps cut (down from 94% after PPI)
Oct 29 Meeting: 51.5% chance of another 25 bps cut (after Sept move), 42.4% no cut
Key dynamic: CPI release spiked cut odds, PPI tempered expectations.

Other Indicators

Fear & Greed Index: 64 (Greed)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.06%

Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢

National

Buyer Mood: Discouraged overall. Even with rates dipping to 6.58%, affordability remains the top barrier. Many note that incomes can’t keep up with home prices.
Market Dynamics: Sellers still hold leverage due to low inventory and rate-lock effects, though some optimism surfaces around a likely Fed cut in September.

Columbus / Central Ohio

Inventory & Price Reductions: More chatter about frequent price cuts, giving buyers room to negotiate.
Affordability Strain: Starter homes are still priced $325–350K+, frustrating many buyers.
Mixed Mood: Fatigue remains, but Columbus stands out as one of the few metros where inventory is expanding, creating cautious optimism.

Pull-quote: “Columbus is one of the few places actually building—inventory is finally loosening, even if prices still sting.”

Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍

Market Dynamics: A Seller's Market transitioning toward buyer-friendly conditions.

Central Ohio’s housing market is showing signs of balance as strong new listing activity and rising inventory meet softer buyer demand. While closings are down from last year and homes are taking longer to sell, median prices remain stable, supported by modest YoY gains. The high rate of price reductions underscores ongoing affordability challenges, but the surge in new listings and expanded supply is creating more opportunities for buyers than at any point in recent years.