High-Level Insight
Last week, markets pushed higher, mortgage rates rose slightly, and strong job numbers sharply reduced the odds of a July Fed rate cut. The Trump administration held firm on upcoming tariff deadlines, while the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” introduced sweeping tax benefits that could heavily favor real estate investors and small businesses. In Central Ohio, last week marked the first time this year that we saw a net listing decline, with a net loss of 40 listings (New Listings - Sold Listings), but the July 4th holiday likely contributed to fewer new listings, so we'll see how future weeks play out.
TL ; DR
Markets: Stocks pushed higher, closing out a strong Q2 across all major indices.
Rates: Mortgage rates rose slightly but less than expected after the jobs report.
Fed Outlook: Strong jobs data sharply reduced the odds of a July rate cut.
Policy: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed.
Central Ohio: Net inventory declined for the first time in 2025 (down 40 listings last week), showings per listing fell sharply, as expected due to the 4th.
Macro Update đź“Š
Trade Deal Deadlines
July 9: Deadline for countries to renegotiate trade deals with the US to prevent the return of paused tariffs.
August 1: Tariffs will be reinstated for countries without new agreements.
The Trump administration has warned trading partners that the April 2nd tariff levels will return August 1 unless deals are reached.
White House officials indicated countries negotiating in good faith may receive more time. Kick that can!
Stock Market Performance Last Week
S&P 500: Gained 0.52% to close at 6,204.95, a record high. Finished Q2 with over 10% gains.
Nasdaq: Gained 0.47% to close at 20,369.73, a record high. Ended Q2 with nearly 18% gains.
Dow Jones Industrial: Gained 0.63% to close at 44,094.77. Ended Q2 up almost 5%.
30-Year Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates moved higher last week, but rose less than expected after a strong June jobs report. Lenders had already built cushions into their pricing earlier in the week ahead of the holiday weekend, which helped absorb most of the bond market’s reaction without forcing larger mortgage rate increases.
Dates: 6/30 âž” 7/1 âž” 7/2 âž” 7/3
Rates: 6.67% âž” 6.67% âž” 6.73% âž” 6.75%
Mortgage Applications
Week over Week: +0.1%
Year over Year: +15.7%
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch Tool)
Current Target Rate: 4.25-4.50%
July 30 Meeting Odds:
Chance of a 25 bps Cut: 4.7% (was 19.1% last week)
Chance of No Cut in July: 95.3%
September 17 Meeting Odds:
30.6% chance of no cut (was 6.9% last week)
66.2% chance of a 25 bps cut 3.2% chance of a 50 bps cut
Why the Odds Dropped: The strong June jobs report showed falling unemployment and job growth exceeding expectations.
Powell’s Speech on July 1
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated patience, emphasizing the need for more data before making changes.
The Fed is monitoring potential inflationary impacts from tariffs before proceeding with rate cuts.
US Jobs Report on July 3
Unemployment Rate: Fell to 4.1% (from 4.2% in May)
Jobs Added: 147,000 jobs in June (forecast was 110,000)
Private Sector: Added 74,000 jobs Government: Added 73,000 jobs
Average Hourly Earnings: Up 0.2% in June and 3.7% year over year
The labor market remains solid, though private sector hiring has slowed and labor force participation continues to decline.
10-Year US Treasury Bonds
The 10-year yield rose from 4.24% on June 30 to 4.35% on July 3.
Influenced by strong jobs data, shifting risk appetite, inflation expectations tied to tariffs, and market sentiment.
The 10-year Treasury remains a key benchmark for mortgage rates and overall market valuations.
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 64 (Greed)
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.06%
One Big Beautiful Bill
On July 4, President Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill - a sweeping tax, spending, and entitlement package.
Key Real Estate & Tax Provisions:
Permanent 100% bonus depreciation (2025-2030), a major win for real estate investors.
Expanded Section 179 expensing - increased to a $2.5M cap with a $4M phase-out.
Qualified Business Income Deduction (Section 199A) - made permanent at 20%.
Home Mortgage Interest Deduction - remains capped at $1M acquisition debt beyond 2025.
State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction Cap - raised to $40K, with phase-out starting at $500K income.
Estate and Gift Tax Exemption - increased to $15M per individual, inflation-adjusted.
Real Estate Impacts:
Homeowners benefit from higher SALT and preserved mortgage deductions.
Larger depreciation and expensing allowances create significant tax incentives for investment properties.
Central Ohio Market Update  🌎📍
Last 4 Weeks
Closings: 2,530 homes - ⬆️ 4.9% over last year
New Listings: 3,182 homes - ⬆️ 18.2% over last year
Active Inventory: 4,655 homes - ⬆️ 66.8% over last year; ⬇️ 4.3% week over week
Median Sale Price: $360,000 - ⬆️ 4.3% over last year
Average Days on Market: 23 days - ⬆️ 4.5% over last year
Months of Supply: 1.9 months
Price Reductions: 52.8% of active listings have reduced price
Net Listings Gained Last Week: -40
YTD Snapshot
Closings: 13,718 homes - ⬇️ 1.8% over last year
New Listings: 17,871 homes - ⬆️ 15.0% over last year
Median Sale Price: $335,000 - ⬆️ 3.1% over last year
Average $/SF: $212.56 - ⬆️ 3.0% over last year
% of List Price Received: 98.7% - ⬇️ 0.2% over last year
Average Days on Market: 32 days - ⬆️ 15.0% over last year
Affordability & Showings
Affordability Index: Franklin County
(Last 4 Weeks): 86.5 → 81.2 → 87.1 → 78.7
A value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home.
Same Period 2024: 87.1 âž” 79.2 âž” 83.4 âž” 79.2
Showings per Listing
(Last 4 Weeks): 5.2 → 5.4 → 5.2 → 4.5
Same Period 2024: 8.6 → 8.9 → 8.6 → 6.8
Showings per Listing
Week over Week: ⬇️ 14.5% Showings per Listing Year over Year: ⬇️ 34.7%