TL ; DR 📖
Macro
• 30Y mortgage 5.99%, flat WoW
• 10Y Treasury ⬇️ 6 bps to 3.97%
• Purchase apps ⬇️ 4.7% WoW, ⬆️ 3.7% YoY
• Odds The Fed holds rates in March is at 97.5%
Central OH
• Active Inventory: 3,413 homes ⬇️ 3.4% WoW
• Months of supply 2.1, ⬆️ 37.9% YoY
• Showings per listing ⬆️ 10.4% WoW, ⬇️ 20.7% YoY
• Pendings ⬆️ 24.29% WoW
• Median price $325,000, ⬆️ 3.2% YoY
Spotlight: Mortgage Rates Dip Below 6% 🔦
Last week, mortgage rates moved and stayed below 6% for the first time since September 2022. Freddie Mac reported a 30-year average of 5.98% on Thursday. Rates are down roughly 0.75% from 6.76% a year ago and well below the 7.76% peak in 2023. The move followed a drop in the 10-year Treasury to 3.96% as investors sought safety amid growth concerns. Affordability has improved, but turnover remains historically low and supply is still tight nationally.
Highlights
• 30Y fixed average 5.98%, first sub-6% reading in nearly four years
• Down 78 bps from 6.76% in Feb 2025
• 10Y Treasury fell from 4.08% to 3.96% during the week
• Typical U.S. home value $358,968, ⬆️ 0.2% YoY
• Monthly payment on a typical home ⬇️ 8.4% YoY
Takeaway: Sub-6% rates improve math for buyers, but low turnover and tight supply still limit transaction volume.
Macro Update 📊
Last week felt like a tug of war between growth fears and sticky inflation. Treasury yields fell as investors moved into bonds on economic slowdown concerns. At the same time, hotter PPI data reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance. Mortgage rates held just under 6%, which helped stabilize housing sentiment. Nationally, affordability is improving, but activity remains rate sensitive. Locally, supply is rising and price reductions are common, shifting leverage slowly toward buyers.
Tailwinds
• 30Y mortgage at 5.99%, ⬇️ 77 bps from 6.76% last February
• 10Y Treasury ⬇️ 6 bps WoW
• Refi apps ⬆️ 4% WoW, ⬆️ 150% YoY
Headwinds
• Purchase apps ⬇️ 4.7% WoW
• PPI ⬆️ 0.5% M/M, ⬆️ 2.9% YoY
• Fed hold probability 97.5% for March
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Mortgage News Daily - 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates last 12 months
Mortgage Applications
US MBA Purchase Index last 12 months
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Truflation Index
The Truflation CPI Index uses real-time consumer spending data to track inflation daily. It updates faster than traditional inflation measures to better reflect price changes in today’s economy.
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Columbus remains in a seller’s market, but conditions continue to shift. Inventory is rising sharply compared to last year. Buyers are active week over week, yet price reductions are common. Homes are taking longer to go under contract. Sellers still have pricing power, but only if they align with current demand.
• CURRENT ACTIVE INVENTORY: 3,413 homes ⬆️ 32.2% YoY & ⬇️ 3.4% WoW
Last 4 Weeks (02/02 - 03/01)
• CLOSINGS: 1,705 ⬇️ 0.8% YoY
• NEW LISTINGS: 2,034 ⬆️ 7.5% YoY
• MEDIAN sales price: $325,000 ⬆️ 3.2% YoY
• AVG DOM: 49 ⬆️ 16.7% YoY
• MONTHS of SUPPLY: 2.1 ⬆️ 37.9% YoY
• AVG $/SF: $210.43 ⬆️ 3.2% YoY
Year to Date (YTD) Snapshot
• YTD CLOSINGS: 3,198 ⬇️ 0.7% YoY
• YTD MEDIAN sales price: $325,000 ⬆️ 4.8% YoY
• YTD NEW LISTINGS: 4,272 units ⬆️ 12.8% YoY
• YTD NEW PENDINGS: 4,477 units ⬆️ 16.6% YoY
• YTD SP/LP%: 99.2% ⬆️ 0.2% YoY
• YTD SP/OLP%: 98.0% ⬆️ 0.7% YoY
• YTD AVG $/SF: $208.50 ⬆️ 3.0% YoY
Other Stats
• Showings per listing 6.41 ⬆️ 10.4% WoW & ⬇️ 20.7% YoY
• Raw showings 21,882 ⬆️ 6.6% WoW & ⬆️ 4.8% YoY
• Franklin County affordability index 109.2 vs 100.3 LY
Showings & Affordability
An affordability index of 100 means the median household can afford the mortgage on a median-priced home. Above 100 indicates greater affordability, below 100 indicates reduced affordability.
Souces:
· 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) - Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
· 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - Mortgage News Daily - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
· Mortgage Applications, Purchase Index - Mortgage Bankers Association via Trading Economics - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index
· CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
· U.S. Inflation Rate - Truflation - https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate
Disclaimer: The information shared in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, financial, or investment advice. Always consult with a qualified attorney, financial advisor, or other professional regarding your specific situation.
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All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.