🍵 Market Update 02/09 │ Jobs Growth Slows, Purchase Apps Drop 14%

Macro
• ADP private hiring: only 22K vs 45K expected
• Purchase apps ⬇️ 14.0% WoW
• Initial jobless claims: 231K ⬆️ 22K WoW

Central Ohio
• Active inventory: 3,531 ⬆️ 33.4% YoY, ⬇️ 3.3% WoW
• Showings per listing ⬆️ 16.8% WoW, ⬇️ 32.3% YoY
• Raw showings ⬆️ 12.9% WoW, ⬇️ 9.7% YoY

ADP reported only 22,000 private-sector jobs were added in January, far below the 45,000 expected. The report described a low-hire environment, with gains concentrated in a narrow set of sectors and job-finding taking longer. For housing, this matters because purchase decisions depend on confidence in income and job stability. When hiring slows, buyers tighten budgets and delay moves. The BLS employment report delay also raised the market impact of ADP this week.

Highlights
• January ADP private payrolls: 22,000
• Consensus expectation cited: 45,000
• December revised/private hiring cited at 37,000
• Wage growth: 4.5% YoY job stayers, 6.4% YoY job switchers

Takeaway: Weaker hiring keeps buyer demand sensitive and makes rate relief less effective.

The MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed purchase applications fell 14% WoW for the week ending January 30. Total applications fell 8.9% WoW, and refinance fell 5% WoW, with refinance activity still far higher than a year ago. The survey noted the MLK holiday adjustment, and broad winter weather disruptions were also cited as a factor in labor and claims data this week. Rates moved slightly lower, but the application response was negative, which signals that demand remains thin and easily disrupted.

Highlights
• Purchase Index ⬇️ 14% WoW (seasonally adjusted)
• Market Composite Index ⬇️ 8.9% WoW
• Refi Index ⬇️ 5% WoW
• Refi ⬆️ 117% YoY

Takeaway: This was a demand warning, not a rate story.

This week reinforced a simple message for housing: demand stays fragile when jobs data weakens. ADP private hiring missed by a wide margin, and the weekly MBA survey showed a sharp drop in purchase applications. Mortgage rates drifted slightly lower, but the move was small and did not change buyer behavior. The 10-year Treasury also moved down by midweek, consistent with a cautious tone in the rates markets.

Housing Market Tailwinds
• Mortgage rates edged down late week, 6.17% to 6.15% ⬇️ 2 bps WoW
• 10YR Treasury yield moved lower by midweek, 4.29% to 4.21% ⬇️ 8 bps
• Wage growth in ADP data remained positive, 4.5% YoY for job stayers, 6.4% YoY for job switchers

Housing Market Headwinds
• ADP private hiring: 22K vs 45K expected
• Purchase apps ⬇️ 14.0% WoW, one of the weakest weekly reads in months
• Jobless claims rose to 231K, tied to storm disruption and a softer labor signal
• The official BLS jobs report was delayed, keeping uncertainty elevated

The Truflation CPI Index uses real-time consumer spending data to track inflation daily. It updates faster than traditional inflation measures to better reflect price changes in today’s economy.

Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.

Demand indicators improved week over week, but the year-over-year picture stayed weak. Showing activity rose from the prior week, yet showings per listing remain far below last year. Inventory stayed much higher than last year, even with a small week-over-week dip. Price reductions remain common, which fits a market where buyers are gaining leverage.

• CURRENT ACTIVE INVENTORY: 3,531 homes ⬆️ 33.4% over LY & ⬇️ 3.3% WoW

Stats from the Last 4 Weeks
• Closings: 2,434 ⬆️ 1.2% YoY
• New listings: 2,824 ⬆️ 9.8% YoY
• Median sales price: $326,450 ⬆️ 3.6% YoY
• Avg DOM: 47 ⬆️ 17.5% YoY
• Months of supply: 1.5
• Showings per listing ⬆️ 16.8% WoW, ⬇️ 32.3% YoY
• Raw showings ⬆️ 12.9% WoW, ⬇️ 9.7% YoY

Year-to-Date (YTD) Snapshot:
• YTD closings: 1,801 ⬇️ 3.2% YoY
• YTD median sales price: $326,900 ⬆️ 7.2% YoY
• YTD avg $/SF: $206.55 ⬆️ 3.6% YoY
• YTD new listings: 2,660 ⬆️ 13.6% YoY
• YTD LP/SP: 98.1% ⬆️ 0.7% YoY

Showings & Affordability

An affordability index of 100 means the median household can afford the mortgage on a median-priced home. Above 100 indicates greater affordability, below 100 indicates reduced affordability.

Souces:
· 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) - Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
· 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - Mortgage News Daily - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
· Mortgage Applications, Purchase Index - Mortgage Bankers Association via Trading Economics - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index
· CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
· U.S. Inflation Rate - Truflation - https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate