TL ; DR 📖
Macro
• Mortgage rates were flat all week near 6.16%
• Fed held policy steady and pushed near-term cut expectations out
• Kevin Warsh nomination reshaped longer-term rate expectations
Central OH
• Active inventory ⬆️ YoY
• Showings per listing ⬇️ WoW and ⬇️ YoY
• Pendings ⬇️ WoW
• Prices held, negotiations increased
Spotlight: Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair 🔦
President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace the current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when the term ends in May. Markets quickly framed the pick as more hawkish than other rumored candidates. The nomination matters because the Fed Chair shapes credibility, messaging, and long-term rate expectations. While the full FOMC votes on policy, leadership influences coalition building and market trust. This move aligns with a discipline-first approach that can allow flexibility later if inflation cooperates.
Highlights/Next Steps
• Nomination announced Friday, Jan 30
• Senate Banking Committee hearings required
• Full Senate confirmation by simple majority
• Typical timeline is 6 to 10 weeks
• Warsh served as Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011
Spotlight: Fed Holds Rates as Markets Price Fewer Near-Term Cuts 🔦
The Fed held the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% and repeated that decisions depend on incoming data. Inflation progress slowed, and the labor market remained firm. There was no signal of urgency to ease. Treasury yields stayed contained, and mortgage-backed securities saw little follow-through. Mortgage rates ended the week essentially unchanged. This explains why buyers did not see rate relief after the meeting.
Highlights
• Policy range held at 3.50%-3.75%
• March 18 odds show 89.1% no change
• April 29 odds show 74.3% no change
• 10-year finished the week at 4.01%
• Mortgage rates stayed near 6.16%
The Fed reset expectations and confirmed that patience is capping rate movement.
Macro Update 📊
Last week was about restraint, not relief. The Fed held rates and reinforced a wait-for-confirmation stance. Bond markets stayed contained, keeping mortgage rates locked in a tight range. The nomination of a new Fed Chair added longer-term uncertainty without changing near-term policy. Housing avoided new pressure, but demand remained sensitive to rates.
Housing Market Tailwinds
• Mortgage rate volatility remained contained
• Inventory growth improved buyer choice
Housing Market Headwinds
• Near-term rate cuts pushed further out
• Inflation data stayed firm
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Truflation Index
The Truflation CPI Index uses real-time consumer spending data to track inflation daily. It updates faster than traditional inflation measures to better reflect price changes in today’s economy.
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Central Ohio continues to normalize. Inventory is materially higher than last year, demand remains uneven, and pricing is holding. Buyers have more leverage, but supply is still tight enough to support values. Winter seasonality and rate sensitivity kept activity choppy.
Active inventory: 3,601 ⬆️ 34.4% YoY ⬇️ 2.6% WoW
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks
• Closings: 2,009 ⬇️ 1.9% YoY
• New listings: 2,319 ⬆️ 9.1% YoY
• Median sales price: $328,500 ⬆️ 4.3% YoY
• Avg DOM: 46 ⬆️ 15.0% YoY
• Months of supply: 1.9
Year-to-Date Snapshot
• YTD closings: 1,377 ⬇️ 8.4% YoY
• YTD median sales price: $328,500 ⬆️ 6.8% YoY
• YTD avg $/SF: $205.73 ⬆️ 4.0% YoY
• YTD LP/SP: 98.1% ⬆️ 0.9% YoY
• YTD new listings: 2,154 ⬆️ 13.7% YoY
Additional Market Signals
• Showings per listing ⬇️ 0.6% WoW ⬇️ 40.7% YoY
• Raw showings ⬇️ 3.2% WoW ⬇️ 20.3% YoY
• Pendings ⬇️ 29.7% WoW - Thanks Snowmageddon
Showings & Affordability
An affordability index of 100 means the median household can afford the mortgage on a median-priced home. Above 100 indicates greater affordability, below 100 indicates reduced affordability.
Local Events 🌎📍
Souces:
· 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) - Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
· 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - Mortgage News Daily - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
· Mortgage Applications, Purchase Index - Mortgage Bankers Association via Trading Economics - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index
· CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
· U.S. Inflation Rate - Truflation - https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate
Disclaimer: The information shared in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, financial, or investment advice. Always consult with a qualified attorney, financial advisor, or other professional regarding your specific situation.
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All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.