🍵 Market Update 01/26 │ Mortgage Volatility Returns, Trump/Davos Recap

• Mortgage rates spiked early, then stabilized
• The 30-year fixed moved from 6.07% to 6.21%, ending at 6.19%
• National purchase apps ⬆️ 5.1% WoW and ⬆️ 19.1% YoY
• Central OH inventory ⬆️ 33.4% YoY
• Showings per listing ⬇️ 15.3% WoW and ⬇️ 30.3% YoY

President Trump used his Davos address to refocus attention on housing affordability and homeownership. He outlined a mix of executive actions and proposed legislation aimed at lowering borrowing costs while limiting institutional competition in single-family housing. Markets reacted more to the rate-related elements than the supply-side proposals. The message attempted to balance affordability with protection of existing home values.

Highlights
• Executive order announced to restrict large institutional buyers in single-family housing
• Proposal to direct up to $200B into mortgage bond purchases
• Call for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest
• Institutional ownership estimated at 2-3% of single-family rentals

Last week’s macro data did not deliver a clear directional signal. Rates moved on repricing and risk sentiment, not on inflation or labor releases. The bond market finished the week flat, reinforcing a range-bound rate environment.

Tailwinds
• Mortgage demand remains reactive. National purchase applications ⬆️ 5.1% WoW and ⬆️ 19.1% YoY
• Rates stabilized late week.
• Labor conditions steady. Jobless claims remained low.

Headwinds
• Abrupt rate shock. Mortgage rates jumped 14 bps in one day
• Inventory rising faster than demand. Active supply ⬆️ 33.4% YoY in Central OH
• Buyer engagement in Central OH fell due to the snowstorm. Showings per listing ⬇️ 15.3% WoW

The Truflation CPI Index uses real-time consumer spending data to track inflation daily. It updates faster than traditional inflation measures to better reflect price changes in today’s economy.

Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.

The market is shifting toward selection, negotiation, and pricing discipline.

Current Inventory: 3,686 homes ⬆️ 33.4% over LY & ⬇️ 4.3% WoW

Stats from the Last 4 Weeks
• Closings: 1,662, ⬆️ 0.1% YoY
• New listings: 1,967, ⬆️ 15.6% YoY
• Median sales price: $325,450, ⬆️ 2.7% YoY
• Avg DOM: 45, ⬆️ 15.4% YoY
• Months of supply: 2.3
• Active listings with price reductions: 56.4%

Year-to-Date (YTD) Snapshot
• YTD closings: 1,030, ⬇️ 7.7% YoY
• YTD median sales price: $325,450, ⬆️ 6.7% YoY
• YTD avg $/SF: $205.84, ⬆️ 4.2% YoY
• YTD LP/SP: 98.1%, ⬆️ 1.0% YoY
• YTD new listings: 1,818, ⬆️ 23.7% YoY

Showings & Affordability

An affordability index of 100 means the median household can afford the mortgage on a median-priced home. Above 100 indicates greater affordability, below 100 indicates reduced affordability.

Souces:
· 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) - Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
· 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - Mortgage News Daily - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
· Mortgage Applications, Purchase Index - Mortgage Bankers Association via Trading Economics - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index
· CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
· U.S. Inflation Rate - Truflation - https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate