TL ; DR 📖
• Rates dipped to cycle lows 📉
• Buyer demand is steady despite the holidays
• Central Ohio inventory is still up well over last year, but has dropped recently
• Prices holding, not accelerating
The RealTea 🫖
Rates moving lower are improving affordability at the margin, while inventory growth is shifting leverage toward buyers. The main constraint remains price levels and consumer confidence. Central Ohio continues to outperform national sentiment due to steady demand and population growth.
Tailwinds
• Mortgage rates near 15-month lows
• Inventory expansion improves choice for buyers
• Central Ohio demand remains durable
Headwinds
• Affordability still stretched
• Consumer confidence is fragile
• High share of listings with price cuts
Spotlight: Mortgage Rates Hit 15-Month Lows 🔦
Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in roughly 15 months, with the 30-year fixed averaging about 6.15%. This marks a meaningful improvement from rates near 7% a year ago. The move reflects easing inflation data, weaker labor signals, and growing confidence that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Lower rates reduce monthly payments and improve affordability at the margin. However, high home prices and limited supply remain constraints.
Highlights
• 30-year fixed around 6.15%
• 15-year fixed near 5.44%
• Lowest level of 2025
• Driven by Fed cut expectations
Spotlight: Central Ohio 2025 Year in Review 🔦
Central Ohio closed 2025 with modest price growth and steady sales volume. Median prices rose from $326,900 to $337,000, reflecting continued demand. Units sold increased slightly, showing market resilience despite higher rates. New listings rose meaningfully, expanding inventory and easing pressure. The market shifted toward balance without a sharp correction.
Highlights
Median price 2024: $326,900
Median price 2025: $337,000
• ⬆️ 3.1% YoY price growth
Units sold 2024: 28,259
Units sold 2025: 28,593
• ⬆️ 1.2% YoY change in sales volume
New listings 2024: 28,640
New listings 2025: 30,370
• ⬆️ 6.0% YoY growth in new listings
Data Notes: All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers.
Macro Update 📊
The macro backdrop is slowly stabilizing. Rates eased, inflation signals cooled, and the Fed remains patient. Housing affordability is still tight nationally, but lower rates are starting to ease pressure.
Markets were closed for part of last week for the new year, so the previous day’s data was used as a placeholder where needed.
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Holiday trading kept volumes light and volatility muted.
• Dow Jones: ⬇️ 0.67% WoW
• S&P 500: ⬇️ 1.01% WoW
• Nasdaq: ⬇️ 1.48% WoW
10-Year Treasury Bond Performance Last Week
• Weekly range: 4.104% to 4.197%
• Close Dec 29: 4.116%
• Close Jan 2: 4.189%
• ⬆️ 7.3 bps WoW
30-Yr Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)
Dec 29 → Dec 30 → Dec 31 → Jan 1 → Jan 2
6.19% → 6.20% → 6.20% → 6.20% → 6.20%
Weekly Avg: 6.20%
Rates remain near 15-month lows, improving mortgage payment & affordability heading into spring.
Mortgage Applications
Mortgage Purchase Applications (Last 4 Weeks)
• 181.6 → 176.5 → 169.9 → 169.9
Same Period Last Year
• 154.9 → 157.1 → 157.1 → 136.7
• ⬆️ 0.0% WoW
• ⬆️ 24.3% YoY
Note: MBA combines the final two weeks of December into a single release due to holidays. The data will be released on Jan 7.
Federal Reserve (CME FedWatch)
Current Target: 3.50-3.75%
Jan 28 Meeting Odds:
25 bps cut - 16.1%
No change - 83.9%
The Fed remains patient, keeping rate expectations stable.
Other Indicators
Fear & Greed Index: 47 Neutral
Truflation Inflation Index: 1.95%
Sentiment on X (Last 7 Days) 📢
National sentiment remains discouraged due to affordability pressure, high ownership costs, and weak confidence. Inventory is rising, but buyers remain hesitant. Pending sales improved, but optimism is fragile.
Columbus sentiment is notably more optimistic. The market is viewed as resilient, growth-driven, and positioned as a top U.S. housing market entering 2026.
National
• Buyers nationally remain cautious as affordability pressures dominate conversations and confidence stays weak, despite modest improvements in rates and pending sales momentum.
• Media narratives continue to amplify housing stress, keeping sentiment pessimistic even as conditions stabilize.
Columbus
• Columbus sentiment is more bullish, supported by population growth, new development, and top-10 market rankings.
• Local discussions focus on opportunity rather than crisis, with demand holding firm.
• Some concern remains around taxes, but optimism outweighs negatives.
Pull Quote - “National housing feels stuck, but Columbus is still viewed as one of the few markets with real forward momentum.”
Central Ohio Market Update 🌎📍
Market Dynamics: A Seller’s Market shifting toward Buyer-friendly conditions.
Central Ohio continues to show stability. Prices held firm, inventory stayed elevated, and buyer activity rebounded after the holiday slowdown.
Stats from the Last 4 Weeks
• Closings: 1,688 ⬇️ 3.0% YoY
• New listings: 1,087 ⬆️ 0.6% YoY
• Active inventory: 3,785 ⬆️ 39.5% YoY ⬇️ 3.0% WoW
• Median price: $327,400 ⬆️ 0.7% YoY
• Avg DOM: 42 ⬆️ 23.5% YoY
• Months of supply: 2.3
YTD omitted for this week, as it would only include 1 day of activity.
Showings & Affordability
Affordability Index Franklin County (Last 4 Weeks)
• 105.6 → 100.8 → 112.5 → 102.7
Same Period Last Year
• 95.0 → 94.3 → 93.7 → 96.0
⬇️ 8.7% WoW
⬆️ 7.0% YoY
An affordability index of 100 means a household earning the median income can afford the mortgage payment on a median-priced home.
Showings per Listing (Last 4 Weeks)
• 3.0 → 2.9 → 2.2 → 3.3
Same Period Last Year
• 4.7 → 4.2 → 3.5 → 5.0
⬆️ 51.3% WoW
⬇️ 33.1% YoY
Raw Showings (Last 4 Weeks)
• 12,694 → 11,816 → 8,561 → 12,561
Same Period Last Year
• 13,593 → 11,629 → 9,271 → 13,455
⬆️ 46.7% WoW
⬇️ 6.6% YoY
Here’s the data:
Disclaimer: The information shared in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, financial, or investment advice. Always consult with a qualified attorney, financial advisor, or other professional regarding your specific situation.
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All data pulled from Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Central OH is defined as Single-Family, Residential listings from the following Counties - Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Union, Pickaway, Madison, Morrow, Fayette, Athens, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Hocking, Knox, Logan, Marion, Muskingum, Perry, Ross. Sales figures do not account for seller concessions/credits provided to buyers. Price reductions are defined as a reduction taken at any time during the lifespan of the listing.